소비자 심리가 주택시장에 미치는 영향 분석 - 주택매매가격을 중심으로 -
Consumer Sentiment and Housing Market Activities: Impact on Sales Price of Housing
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This paper examines the impact of consumer sentiment on sales price of housing. To account for the roles of market fundamental variables and to figure out additional effect of consumer sentiment, an estimating model is developed by carefully examining demand supply factors affecting housing market. To analyze short-run adjustment process as well as long-run movement of sales price of housing, an error-correction model is estimated using quarterly data for relevant variables. Estimation results show that the long-run movement of sales price of housing is affected by income, interest rate, expected house price appreciation rate, price of land, and degree of housing shortage. Consumer sentiment is also found to significantly and positively affect the long-run movement of sales price of housing. Estimation results also indicates that there exists an error-correction mechanism on sales price of housing. It is found that about 37% of disequilibrium is eliminated in one quarter. Short-run adjustment of sales price of housing is mainly influenced by expected house price appreciation rate and housing shortage as well as consumer sentiment which positively affects the change in sales price of housing. All these results suggest that consumers' psychological factors are inherent in Korean housing market represented by sales price of housing and that housing demand is determined not only by consumers' ability to buy but also by consumers' willingness to buy as argued by Katona(1968).
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of consumer sentiment on sales price of housing. To account for the roles of market fundamental variables and to figure out additional effect of consumer sentiment, an estimating model is developed by carefully examining demand supply factors affecting housing market. To analyze short-run adjustment process as well as long-run movement of sales price of housing, an error-correction model is estimated using quarterly data for relevant variables. Estimation results show that the long-run movement of sales price of housing is affected by income, interest rate, expected house price appreciation rate, price of land, and degree of housing shortage. Consumer sentiment is also found to significantly and positively affect the long-run movement of sales price of housing. Estimation results also indicates that there exists an error-correction mechanism on sales price of housing. It is found that about 37% of disequilibrium is eliminated in one quarter. Short-run adjustment of sales price of housing is mainly influenced by expected house price appreciation rate and housing shortage as well as consumer sentiment which positively affects the change in sales price of housing. All these results suggest that consumers' psychological factors are inherent in Korean housing market represented by sales price of housing and that housing demand is determined not only by consumers' ability to buy but also by consumers' willingness to buy as argued by Katona(1968).
참고문헌 (14)
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