국가간 자본이동의 결정요인과 글로벌 불균형
Determinants of Cross-border Movement of Financial Assets and Policy Implications for Global Imbalance
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초록
본 연구는 2008년 미국에서 촉발된 글로벌 금융․경제 위기의 근본원인 중 하나로 지적되어 온 글로벌 불균형이 위기 발발 이후 어떻게 변화되고 있는지에 대한 실증분석이다. 특히, 본 연구는 글로벌 불균형 중 범태평양 불균형으로 지적되는 중국, 일본을 비롯한 동아시아 국가들의 미국에 대한 “과도한” 투자가 글로벌 금융위기 발발 이전과 비교하여 발발 이후에 어떤 변화가 있는지를 규명하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 본 연구는 미국 재무부의 TIC(Treasury International Capital) 자료를 이용하여 2001년부터 2011년까지 기간 동안 외국인의 미국에 대한 주식, 채권, 은행대출 등 자본 투자의 규모 및 변화 추세를 분석하였다. 분석결과, 글로벌 금융위기 발발 이후 미국의 GDP 대비 경상수지 적자규모는 감소하여 어느 정도 글로벌 불균형이 감소하였지만, 미국의 대 동아시아 국가들의 경상수지 적자 규모는 총 경상수지 적자 대비 증가하였다. 아울러 동아시아 국가들의 미국에 대한 자본 투자규모도 외환위기 이후 지속적으로 증가하여 전 세계 국가들의 미국에 대한 자본 투자규모에서 차지하는 비중도 증가하였다. 즉, 동아시아 국가들이 글로벌 불균형에 기여하는 상대적 정도는 글로벌 금융위기 이후 증가하였다. 이러한 결과는 중력모형을 이용한 외국인들의 미국에 대한 자본투자 결정요인 분석을 통해서 재확인 되었다. 즉, 중국, 일본, 한국, 싱가포르, 타이완 등 동아시아의 주요 국가들 은 글로벌 금융위기 이후 미국에 대한 ‘과도한’ 투자를 도리어 더욱 심화시킨 것으로 나타났는데, 특히 장기채권투자에서 이러한 현상이 두드러졌다.
Abstract
Using the US Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, this paper aims to assess whether the global imbalances, which have been pointed out as one of the core causes of the global financial crises, have gone through any fundamental changes since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. In particular, this paper analyses whether the major East Asian countries have changed their pattern of cross-border security investment in the U.S. financial market, in the form of equities, bonds and bank lending after the global financial crisis. The results show that even though the overall size of the global imbalances decreased in terms of U.S. current account deficit and capital account surplus, the relative share of East Asian countries in the global imbalances have increased since 2008. Specifically, the major East Asian countries such as China, Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan have intensified their relative ‘excessive’ investment in the U.S., especially in the long-term bond investment since 2008.
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