중력모형을 이용한 글로벌 불균형 현상의 규명
Investigation of Global Imbalances Based on a Gravity Model
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본 연구는 2008년 미국에서 촉발된 글로벌 금융ㆍ경제 위기의 근본원인으로 지적되고 있는 글로벌 불균형을 새로운 각도에서 조명하기 위해 미국 재무부의 TIC(Treasury International Capital) 자료를 이용하여 2001년부터 2007년까지 기간 동안 미국에 대한 외국의 주식, 채권, 은행대출 등 자본투자 규모 및 추세를 분석하였다. 아울러 중력모형을 이용하여 미국에 대한 자본투자의 결정요인을 종류별로 파악하였다. 특히 중력모형에 동아시아 국가 더미를 포함하여 동아시아 국가들의 미국에 대한 자본투자 규모가 적정 규모인지를 분석하였다. 분석 결과 자본이동 측면에서 거의 모든 동아시아 국가들 이 미국에 대해 적정 규모 이상의 투자를 하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 주식투자나 은행대출보다는 장기채권 투자의 형태로 동아시아 국가들이 미국에 적정 규모 이상의 투자를 하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 글로벌 금융위기의 근본 원인으로 지적되고 있는 범태평양 불균형을 실증적으로 확인하는 것이다.
Abstract
Using the US Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, this paper attempts to analyze the size and trend of foreign investment in the U.S. in the form of equties, bonds and bank lending during the period of 2001-2007. In addition, this paper assesses the determinants of foreign investment in the U.S., using the financial gravity model which includes an East Asian dummy as an explanatory variable. The results show that most East Asian countries have invested more in the U.S. than the optimal level suggested by the gravity model. Such an over-investment is more evident in long-term bond investment than in equity investment or bank lending. Thus, the results confirm that global imbalance does exist between East Asian countries and the U.S.
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