기술의 전파와 경제성장에 대한 실증분석
An Empirical Evaluation on Technology Diffusions and Economic Growth
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성장이론에서 소득의 수렴은 기술의 수렴을 전제로 한다. 그러나 기술의 전파(spillover)와 이에 따른 국가 간 기술의 수렴(convergence)에 대해서는 신고전학파와 신성장이론이 상반된 견해를 제시한다. 본 연구는 1970~2010년의 121개국의 자료를 이용하여 총 요소생산성(TFP)으로 대표되는 기술진보가 국가 간 수렴하는지를 분석하였다. 분석에는 Phillips and Sul(2007b)이 제시한 log- 검정법이 사용되었다. 분석결과, 전 세계적 차원의 기술수렴에 대한 증거는 발견되지 않았으며, OECD 국가들과 일부 선진국 그룹들에 대해서만 수렴의 증거가 발견되었다. 기술의 전파는 국지적이라는 관념에 기초하여 클럽수렴이론을 검정한 결과, 2개의 주요 기술수렴클럽이 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 소득수렴과 비교한 분석에서는 소득보다 기술이 상대적으로 강한 수렴경향을 보이는 것으로 나타났으며, 이는 소득수렴에 선행하여 기술의 수렴이 발생한다는 관념과 부합하는 것으로 해석될 수 있다.
Abstract
The theory of growth implies that technology-convergence precedes income-convergence. However, neoclassical theory and new growth theory have different views about the properties of the cross-country diffusion and convergence of technology. Using the test method proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007), this study examines whether cross-country data of TFP over the period of 1970~2010 is consistency with the cross-country convergence of technology. No evidence in favor of the world-wide convergence of technology is found, whereas evidence of convergence is found for OECD countries and 17 industrialized countries. The study also examines club convergence based on the notion that technological diffusion is not global, and it identifies two major technology-convergence clubs. The result indicates that technology has stronger tendency for convergence than income, which is consistent with the notion that technology-convergence precedes income-convergence.
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