국가간 Technology 수렴에 대한 비교분석: 우리나라 주요 교역국을 중심으로
A Comparative Study on the Technology Convergence among Countries
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본 연구는 우리나라와 미국 그리고 우리나라와 일본 그리고 우리나라와 독일간에 Technology수렴가능성에 대하여 Caner and Hansen(2001)의 비선형 단위근검정기법(TAR)을 이용하여 실증분석하였다. 분석대상국가의 30년 동안 장기적 자료를 이용하여 우리나라와 주요 교역국간에 Technology 수렴가능성을 분석한 결과는 다음과 같았다. 첫째, 기존 ADF 단위근 검증방법론에 의한 Technology수렴가능성은 기각되었다. 둘째, Technology수렴관계의 비선형성을 검증한 결과, 우리나라와 주요 교역국인 미국, 일본 그리고 독일 사이에 비선형 Technology수렴관계가 있음을 확인하였다. 마지막으로 Technology수렴관계가 성립한 주요 교역국은 미국으로 확인되었으며, 우리나라와 미국간에 Technology수렴은 주로 1990년대 초반부터 후반인 1997년까지 이루어졌으나, 1998년 이후 두 국가간에 Technology이탈현상이 발견되었다. 우리나라와 일본 그리고 독일간에 비 선형관계에서 Technology수렴현상은 발견되지 않았다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze whether or not technology convergence exists by applying the recent Caner and Hansen's Threshold AutoRegression methodology(TAR) to four main trading countries such as Korea, Japan, U.S. and German under a nonlinearity specifications. For the purpose of analysis, the stationarity of technology gap between Korea and the other country such as United States, Japan and German in the sectors of grand total over the 30-year period (1970～2000) has been examined from the perspective of long-term relations. The empirical results can be summarized in the following three theses: (1) We could not accept the convergence hypothesis of technology gap in using ADF unit root test. (2) We, however, identify the nonlinearity relations in the technology gap between Korea and the United States including the technology gap of our country to Japan and to German. (3) Lastly, under the nonlinearity specification for technology gap, we find the technology convergence between Korea and U.S. during early 90s to mid 90s in the grand total sectors but we are not able to find any evidence for the technology convergence between Korea and Japan as well as between Korea and German.
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