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서울시 아파트 전세가격 변동률 및 결정요인의 공간 전이 효과 분석

Spatial Spillover Effects of Seoul APT Chonsei Price Growth Rate and Determinants

유정석|김대원
한국부동산분석학회 (Korea Real Estate Analysts Association(Kreaa))|2015.03|부동산학연구 (Journal of the Korea Real Estate Analysts Association)|제21권 제1호|pp. 31-55

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참고문헌

키워드

공간 전이 효과패널 SDM공간 추세 분석전세 가격 변동률Spatial Spillover EffectsPanel SDMTrend Surface AnalysisChonsei Price Growth Rate
주제분류경제학

초록

In order to identify changes in the spatial distribution of the Chonsei price growth rate and its spatial spillover effects in addition to its determinants in 25 autonomous districts of Seoul, the following 2 step analysis was conducted. First, we estimated Trend Surface regression to examine the spatial distribution and trend of the Chonsei price growth rate. Analysis results showed high upward trends in Chonsei for the central and northern districts including Jongno-gu, Yongsan-gu, Dobong-gu, Gangbuk-gu, and Nowon-gu before 2009. After 2009, however, the upward trend seemed to move to Gangnam district including Gangnam-gu, Songpa-gu, and Gangdong-gu. Second, we estimated panel (fixed effect) SDM regression to examine spatial spillover effects of the apartment Chonsei price growth rate and its determinants in Seoul. Based on the analysis results, we found that the apartment Chonsei price growth rate exhibits spatial autocorrelation and that its determinants are partially autocorrelated as well. In addition, we found that the Chonsei price growth rate and its determinants exhibit spatial spillover effects; of special note is the fact that the indirect (spillover) effect of the 1st-order lagged Chonsei price growth rate was stronger than that of the direct effect in the post-January 2009 results.

Abstract

In order to identify changes in the spatial distribution of the Chonsei price growth rate and its spatial spillover effects in addition to its determinants in 25 autonomous districts of Seoul, the following 2 step analysis was conducted. First, we estimated Trend Surface regression to examine the spatial distribution and trend of the Chonsei price growth rate. Analysis results showed high upward trends in Chonsei for the central and northern districts including Jongno-gu, Yongsan-gu, Dobong-gu, Gangbuk-gu, and Nowon-gu before 2009. After 2009, however, the upward trend seemed to move to Gangnam district including Gangnam-gu, Songpa-gu, and Gangdong-gu. Second, we estimated panel (fixed effect) SDM regression to examine spatial spillover effects of the apartment Chonsei price growth rate and its determinants in Seoul. Based on the analysis results, we found that the apartment Chonsei price growth rate exhibits spatial autocorrelation and that its determinants are partially autocorrelated as well. In addition, we found that the Chonsei price growth rate and its determinants exhibit spatial spillover effects; of special note is the fact that the indirect (spillover) effect of the 1st-order lagged Chonsei price growth rate was stronger than that of the direct effect in the post-January 2009 results.

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