서비스 무역장벽이 상품 수출에 미치는영향 분석
The Impacts of Services Trade Barriers on Exports of Goods
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본 연구는 World Bank 서비스 무역제한지수를 활용하여 상품 수출국의 서비스 무역장벽이상품 수출에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 상당수의 서비스는 제조업 및 농림수산업의 중간재로투입되기 때문에 서비스의 효율성은 제조업과 농림수산업의 생산성에 영향을 미친다. 국내에서공급되는 서비스의 질이 낮고 높은 서비스 무역장벽으로 서비스의 수입이 제한되어 제조 기업이비효율적인 국내 서비스를 중간재로 활용하게 되면 제조 기업의 생산성이 낮고 해외 수출시장에서 경쟁력을 확보할 수 없다. 서비스 무역자유화로 양질의 서비스를 중간재로 사용할 수 있게되면 제조업을 비롯한 다른 경제활동의 생산성이 높아지고 이에 따라 수출이 촉진될 수 있다. 본 연구는 서비스 무역장벽과 상품 수출의 관계를 분석하기 위해 중력모형을 기본 실증분석모형으로 설정하고 영(zero)의 무역이 존재할 때 발생할 수 있는 편의를 통제하기 위해 Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood(PPML) 분석방법을 적용하였다, 또한 다른 국가와의 상대적 관계를나타내는 다자간 저항성(multilateral resistance)을 통제하였다. 본 연구는 상품 수출국의서비스 무역장벽이 낮을수록 상품 수출이 촉진된다는 증거를 발견하였다.
Abstract
This paper investigates the impacts of services trade barriers on exports of goods. The empirical analysis relies on Services Trade Restriction Index (World Bank) as proxy variable for trade barriers in services and worldwide bilateral exports data for the period 2005～2013. To deal with the zero trade issue and the presence of heteroskedasticity, the Poisson Pseudo- Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation method is applied. In addition, we control the multilateral resistance by including the first-order Taylor expansion of Baier and Bergstrand (2009). We find the negative impacts of trade barriers in services on exports of goods, implying that trade liberalization in services enhances productivity of manufacturing sectors and thus increases exports of goods. Comparing the impacts of mode 1 (cross-border supply) and mode 3 (commercial presence) trade barriers on exports of goods, the empirical results show that the impacts of mode 3 trade barriers in services are stronger than those of mode 1.
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