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기업의 수출과 총요소생산성: 자기선택가설 및 학습효과가설의 산업별 검증

Export and Total Factor Productivity of Korean Firm: Self-Selection and Learning-by-Exporting Hypotheses by Industry

강수현
한국국제경제학회 (The Korea International Economic Association)|2020.09|국제경제연구 (KUKJE KYUNGJE YONGU)|제26권 제3호|pp. 59-89|DOI 10.17298/kky.2020.26.3.003

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수출총요소생산성Firm HeterogeneityExporting기업의 이질성자기선택(self-selection)수출 학습효과Self-SelectionLearning-by-Exporting
주제분류경제학

초록

본 연구는 2008～2016년 우리나라 기업활동조사를 활용하여 기업의 수출활동과 생산성의 인과관계에 관련한 자기선택가설 및 학습효과를 검증한다. 한국을 대상으로 자기선택가설 및 학습효과를 검증한 선행연구는 제조업에 한정되어 있었으나, 본 연구에서는 서비스산업이 국민경제에서 차지하는 비중 및 서비스교역의 증가에 따른 중요성을 인지하고 제조업 뿐만 아니라 서비스산업을 포함한다. 기업의 총요소생산성은 OLS로 측정할 시 발생할 수 있는 동시성과 선택편의의 문제를 통제하기 위해 Olley and Pakes(1996)방법을 적용하였다. 무역비용을 감당할 수 있을 정도로 생산성이 높은 일부의 기업만이 수출을 이행할 수 있다고 주장하는 자기선택가설 검증을 위해, 산업고정효과 및 패널 로짓모형을 적용하였다. 분석결과 내수기업보다 수출기업의 생산성이 더 높다는 자기선택가설이 성립하는 것으로 나타났으며, 제조업 뿐만 아니라 서비스업에서도 자기선택가설이 유효한 것으로 분석되었다. 수출의 학습효과가설은 성향점수매칭기법 및 시스템 일반화적률법(system GMM)을 적용하였다. 분석결과, 수출이 기업의 생산성을 향상하는데 기여한다는 명확한 결론은 얻지 못했으며, 제한적으로 제조업보다는 서비스업에서의 효과가 유의미하게 나타났다.

Abstract

Despite the dramatic increase in the household debt, the default rate, a risk indicator ofmortgage loans, has decreased and remained relatively low. Using a borrower-level microdatafrom Korea Credit Bureau from the first quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2016, weanalyze the effect of the increase in household loan balance on the delinquency rate. Wefind that a borrower with higher loan balance has a higher default risk. However, controllingfor the loan balance, an increase in loan balance is likely to decrease the default risk inthe short term. The results were robust when the samples were divided into bank loans andnon-bank loans, which are known to have a higher default risk. However, when the DTI(Debt-to-Income) ratio, a measure of affordability or replayment ability, increased due tothe additional loan, the default risk increased the default risk increased. In particular, theincrease in the default risk was substantial when DTI reached over 60% due to the additionalloan. Our results imply that change in debt affordability plays an important role in explainingthe delinquency probability. Moreover, in the perspective of macroprudential policy, our results emphasize the importance of maintaining the affordability by DTI regulation than focusing on the aggregate loan balance.

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