유럽연합의 확대과정에서 나타난 지역 간 소득불균등 현상에 관한 연구
A Study on Income Convergence and Divergence during the Enlargement Process of the European Union
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유럽연합(EU)은 출범초기부터 역내무역자유화와 더불어 회원국 간 소득수준의 수렴을목표로 하였다. 경제적 수렴에 관한 연구는 2000년대 중반 중⋅동구유럽 국가들이 대거EU에 가입하면서 그 중요성이 높아졌다. 본 연구는 EU의 1,300 여개 지역을 대상으로1995-2007년 사이의 소득수준 수렴현상을 분석하였다. 또한 회귀분석을 통해 소득수렴에영향을 끼친 결정요인을 파악하고자 하였다. 분석결과 EU 회원국 간에는 소득수준의 수렴현상이 나타났으나, 한 국가 내에서는 소득수준의 상이성이 확대된 것으로 나타나며, 중⋅동구유럽국가(CEECs)의 경우 이러한 현상이 더욱 두드러지게 나타난다. 한 국가 내에서 경제적 비중이 높은 지역일수록 높은 소득증가율을 기록한 것으로 나타나며 , 이러한 현상은 CEECs에서 더 확연하게 나타났다. EU 회원국 간의 소득수렴은 회원국 내에 경제활동 밀집지역이 높은 성장을 거둠으로써 나타난 현상이며 낙후지역은 여전히 낮은 소득수준에 머물고 있는 것으로 나타난다. 본 연구는 EU에 국한되는 연구이나, 동아시아 통합은 물론 국내FTA 정책에도 시사하는 바가 크다. FTA 등을 통한 무역자유화는 전체 경제의 후생증가에 기여하나, 낙후지역은 후생증가 효과로부터 소외될 가능성이 높다. 따라서 경제통합을 추진 할 경우, 낙후지역 발전방안에 대한 논의도 병행되어야 할 것으로 보인다.
Abstract
This paper examines income convergence across Europe during the period 1995~2007 where the last enlargement of the EU and the process of economic integration was in active progress. The enlargement has been followed by the convergence of late comers toward the European average. However, the remarkable cross-country convergence has tended toward within-country divergence,particularly for Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) during the enlargement period. High income regions, mostly capital cities, in CEECs are characterized particularly by higher growth rates. It is highly probable that the economic integration has favored those well-off regions at the expense of regions remote from their capitals. This tentative conclusion provides important policy implications for economic integration in other regions, where countries have been seeking diverse regional trade agreements (RTA). Benefits from economic integration are likely to be concentrated in certain favored regions, mostly capital regions or industrial areas. Thus, it will be increasingly necessary to develop a mechanism to channel economic benefits to backward regions for within-country convergence.
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