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고령화와 국제 자본이동

Population Aging and International Capital Flows

박대근|양두용|주영민
한국국제경제학회 (The Korea International Economic Association)|2009.04|국제경제연구 (KUKJE KYUNGJE YONGU)|제15권 제1호|pp. 29-53|DOI 10.17298/kky.2009.15.1.002

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참고문헌

키워드

고령화중력모형Gravity ModelPopulation Aging연령효과국제 자본이동주식과 채권International Capital FlowsEquity and Bond Holdings
주제분류경제학

초록

본 연구에서는 IMF의 CPIS 자료를 이용하여 고령화가 국제 자본이동에 미치는 영향을 파악해 보았다. 이를 위해 국가 간 금융자산 보유액을 설명하기 위한 중력모형을 설정하고 추정한 결과 인구의 연령구조가 국가 간 주식, 장기채, 단기채 보유액에 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 주식과 장기채에 있어서 노년층의 연령효과는 청장년층에 비해 크게 감소하는데, 이는 다른 조건이 일정하다면 이들 금융자산에 대한 해외 투자규모가 인구 고령화에 따라서 감소할 것임을 의미한다.

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of population aging on international capital flows. Using the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey data from IMF, we estimate a gravity model to explain cross-border financial asset holdings. The result shows that the age structure of population has significant effects on various forms of cross-border asset holdings. In particular, estimation of the age effects reveals that the cross-border equity and long-term bond holdings of the elderly decline sharply. Such a result implies that if other things are equal cross-border holdings of equities and long-term bonds will decrease significantly with the progress of population aging.

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