인구고령화가 인적자본 투자 및 금융시장에 미치는 영향

Abstract

In Korea, population is rapidly aging as fertility rate declines and longevity increases. Considering these forces the paper analyzes the relationship between the decline in fertility and the investment in human capital at the household level. The paper also analyzes the macroeconomic effects of aging, such as the changes in saving rates, asset returns, and the relative demand for different types of assets, and examines how these effects can be adjusted by the efficient use of human capital. First, we consistently estimate the trade-off between child quantity and quality by exploiting exogenous variation in fertility due to son preferences using the Korea household panel data(1998~2004). The results show that per capita investment in education will be increased by 67~78% as the number of sibling is decreased. This household level result implies that the human capital investment might be increased as the fertility declines in Korea. Next, we forecast and simulate the effect of aging on the financial markets and the demand for the alternative assets using over-lapping generation CGE model. The results show that the return of capital changes around 3% and the proportion of safe assets such as deposits, bonds will be increased as the population is aging and more financial assets will be accumulated when the human capital is efficiently used. These results imply that demographic change in Korea may not necessarily have an adverse effects on financial markets and economic variables and that any such effects are likely to be appropriately adjusted if the accumulated human capital is efficiently used for the increase in the productivity.