주택가격지수 가격변동 특성비교 연구

Abstract

This study compared and analyzed the current form and characteristics of the housing price index and the price fluctuation characteristics of each index, focusing on the Korea Real Estate Agency's housing price index, which is a nationally approved statistics, and derived implications. Housing price indices can be divided into survey price-based indices and actual transaction-based indices depending on the data used. Survey-based indices can secure representativeness and have high timeliness, but low volatility and smoothing effects may occur, while real transaction-based indices have high perceived power, but there are limitations in terms of representativeness and timeliness of the sample. As a result of comparing and analyzing the price fluctuation characteristics of each housing price index, the Korea Real Estate Agency index and the KB index showed relatively small price volatility and lagging characteristics compared to the actual transaction index and the real estate 114 index. Depending on the cyclical phase of the housing market, during the expansion period, price volatility is large and the actual transaction reflection ratio is high, but during the contraction period, price volatility is low and the actual transaction reflection ratio is low, showing characteristics of downward rigidity. In particular, there is a problem with the Korea Real Estate Board index, which is an approved statistic, having a large smoothing effect compared to other indices, so there is a need to improve the index to further expand the ability to capture actual transactions.