외환위기 이후 우리나라 신용등급 상향요인 분석: 국가 패널 분석을 통하여
Analysis on Credit Rate Upgrade of Korea after Asian Currency Crisis
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초록
우리나라의 신용등급은 외환위기 이후 지속적으로 상승하여 왔다. OECD 국가들의 신용등급 결정요인을 순위 로짓 모형으로 분석한 결과, 1인당 국민소득, 물가상승률 및 국가부채 등이 통계적으로 유의한 주요변수였다. 분석결과를 외환위기 이후 우리나라 신용등급 상향기간에 적용하면, 1인당 국민소득(94%), 총부채수준(-21%), 금융위기의 경험(18%), 경상수지(7%), 물가상승률(2%) 등이 우리나라 신용등급변화의 주요한 영향을 주었다. 즉, 우리나라의 지속적인 신용등급 상승은 소득수준의 상승, 외환위기 이후 글로벌 금융위기를 제외하고 경제 위기가 없었던 점, 경상수지 흑자와 물가안정에 기인한 것으로 평가된다. 다만 총부채수준의 상승이 신용등급에 부정적인 영향을 주었으므로, 향후 지속적인 국가부채 관리가 필요할 것으로 보인다.
Abstract
The sovereign credit rate of Korea has been upgraded since the currency crisis in 1997. The main determinants of credit rates are per capita income, inflation and government's debts according to empirical results from ordered logit regression of OECD countries data from 1995 to 2010. After applying the regression results in the case of Korea, we interpret that the main source of Korean credit rate upgrade has been the growth of per capita income. And the absence of financial crisis except for two major crises and low inflation also seem to help the upgrade. However, the level of government external debt has given negative impacts on the credit changes. Thus, the management of government's debts and the growth of per capita income are needed in order to keep or improve the credit rate of Korea further.
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