정부신뢰가 국가신용에 미치는 영향분석
Effects of Trust in Government on Sovereign Credit Ratings
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본 연구는 시민의 정부에 대한 신뢰도와 국가신용의 관련성을 국가패널자료(62개국, 1995년~ 2014년)를 이용하여 실증적으로 검증하였다. 시민의 정부에 대한 신뢰도는 세계가치조사(World Value Survey)를 활용하였으며, 국가신용은 주요 신용평가기관의 국가별 외화표시 장기 정부채권 신용등급을 활용하여 각각 수치화 하였다. 국가 간 및 국가 내의 차이를 구분한 순위로짓모형으로 분석한 결과 정부신뢰의 국가 내 상승 및 하락은 국가신용등급에 통계적으로 유의미한영향을 주었다. 정부신뢰 수준의 국가 간의 차이는 신용등급 차이에 영향을 준다고 판단하기어려우나, 국가 내에서 정부신뢰가 높아지는 경우 해당 국가의 신용등급은 상승하였다. 이러한관련성은 정부에 대한 국민의 신뢰 증대가 정부정책의 효율성을 높여 정부에 대한 대외 신뢰도를높인 것으로 판단할 수 있다. 따라서 정부신뢰를 높이기 위한 정부의 노력은 대외 신뢰도 상승에기여할 것이다.
Abstract
We empirically analyze the relationship between sovereign credit ratings and citizens’ trust in government using the national panel data which consists of 62 countries in the period from 1995 to 2014. Using ordered logit models with between-countries and within-country differences, we find that trust in governments is statistically significantly affecting the sovereign credit ratings through only within-country differences. Between-countries differences of the level of trust in governments do not affect the sovereign credit ratings while the increase of trust in a government within a country would improve the sovereign credit ratings. We conject that the increase of citizens’ trust in government improves the efficiencies of policies, and therefore it affects the sovereign credit ratings. The effort on improving citizens’ trust in governments would improve the external credibility’s of them.
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