유라시아 경제통합과 역내 연결성
Eurasian Economic Integration and Regional Connectivity
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초록
한국의 신북방정책, 중국의 일대일로(一帶一路)와 아시아인프라투자은행(AIIB), 러시아 주도의유라시아경제연합(Eurasian Economic Union) 등 유럽과 아시아를 포괄하는 유라시아지역의경제통합에 대한 주요국의 관심이 높아지고 구체적인 행보가 빨라지고 있다. 그러나 광활한면적, 비효율적인 교통인프라, 부진한 역내 무역으로 유라시아지역 국가들이 자연적 교역상대국(natutal trading partners)이 되기에는 어려운 여건이다. 그럼에도 불구하고, 우리는 과거 러시아와중앙아시아 국가들만의 통합과 달리, 한국과 중국이 적극 참여한다면 유라시아 경제통합의잠재력이 충분하다는 것을 무역보완성지수(Trade Complementarity Index, TCI)와 현시비교우위(Revealed Comparative Advantage, RCA)지수를 통해 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 부진한 교통인프라가 유라시아 통합에 있어 중요한 장애요인이며, 이를 개선하는 것이 역내 무역규모를확대시킬 뿐만 아니라 세계전체 무역에도 긍정적 효과가 있음을 확대 중력모형을 활용한무역창출효과(trade creation effect)와 무역전환효과(trade diversion effect)를 통해 확인하였다. 이는 유라시아 경제통합을 위한 국가간 물적 인프라(cross-border infrastructure) 투자와관련제도 개선 등 연결성(connectivity) 제고 노력의 필요성을 실증적으로 뒷받침해 주는 결과라는데 의미가 있다.
Abstract
This paper explores the reasons why much-touted Eurasian regionalism has so far failed to deliver a concrete result using various trade-related indicators, and then evaluates the steps that stakeholders should take in order to achieve meaningful economic integration in the Eurasian region. Various trade and transportation indices such as trade complementarity index(TCI), revealed comparative advantage(RCA) index, and logistic performance index(LPI) among Eurasian countries show that regional disconnection and the lack of complementary trade structure among the former CIS countries have been critical obstacles to economic integration, and including Korea and China would be a solution for the Eurasian regionalism to be economically fruitful. In addition, panel regression analyses reveal that improving regional connectivity would make the countries in the region natural trading partners by raising net trade creation effect of economic integration. Our findings strongly suggest that scaling up investments for cross-border transportation infrastructure and streamlining related institutions take priority over all other regional policies.
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