정부 R&D 지출 효과 분석을 위한동태일반균형(DSGE) 모형 개발
A DSGE Model for the Government R&D Expenditure
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초록
본 연구에서는 우리나라 정부 R&D 지출이 거시경제에 미치는 효과를 반영할 수 있는 소규모 개방경제 동태확률일반균형(DSGE) 모형의 원형을 개발하였다. Jones and Williams(1998) 모형의 소규모 개방경제 버전을 기본으로 하되 이산화 과정을 통해서 생산성 충격, 선호 충격, 정부지출 충격 등을 반영할 수 있도록 개선하였다. R&D 투자가 생산기술에 미치는 영향은 내생성장모형과 준내생성장모형 모두 가능하도록 설정하였다. 기존 모형과 달리 정부 R&D 지출과 민간 R&D 지출을 구분하고 두 지출이 생산기술에 미치는 승수도 비대칭적일 수 있도록 하였다. 분석 결과 우리 경제는 내생성장모형보다 준내생성장 모형이 더 적합한 것으로 판단된다.
Abstract
This paper develops a DSGE model for examining the effects of government R&D expenditureon technology progress. We improve the small open economy version of Jones andWilliams(1998) by allowing for capturing the productivity, preference and governmentexpenditure shocks. Our model covers both endogenous growth theory and semi-endogenousgrowth theory and also allow for the asymmetric effects of government and private expenditureon productivity skill. The parameters in the model are estimated using Bayesian method. We find that Korean economy is better fit by semi-endogenous growth model. The effectof R&D expenditure on technology is greater in private expenditure case than government one. The government R&D expenditure promotes private R&D expenditure in the short run via improving the private technology skills, while crowding out presents in the long run.
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