슘페테리안 성장모형을 통한 한국경제 R&D 투자의 적정규모 추정
A Derivation of Optimal R&D Intensity by Schumpeterian Growth Model
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초록
본 연구는 슘페테리안 품질제고 내생성장모형을 한국경제 성장과정에 적용할 수 있는가하는 이슈에 대한 실증적 타당성을 검토한다. 또한, Aghion and Howit(198, 209)이 제시한 방법에 따라 한국경제의 최적 R&D 투입규모(집약도)를 도출하였다. 2017년 기준, 한국경제의 집약도가 4.5%인 사실을 감안할 때, 최적 집약도는 5.05-5.61%정도로 나타난다. 모수설정에 따른 이 추정은 이산시간(지식생산 GDP투입) 및 연속시간(여구인력 투입)의 경우를 모두 고려하였다. 어떠한 내생모형이 적합한가는 구체적인 R&D 과정, 즉 특정 산업이나 부문의 특성에 달려있다. GDP단위로 측정된 적정투입이 더 크게 나타나는 것은 이가 자본비용을 포함한데서 기인하는 것으로 판단된다. 또한, 오차수정모형에서 생산성증가율, 1인당 자본증가율, 인구증가율 간 존재하는 공적분의 수(위수)에 대한 공적분 가설검정을 통해 한국경제 성장과정을 규모효과를 고려한 슘페테리안 내생성장모형으로 잘 설명할 수 있는 방법을 소개하였다.
Abstract
This study examine the empircal validity for whether we can apy schumpeterian growth model to Korean economy or not. Acordong to Aghion and Howit(198, 209), we derived the optimal R&D intensity as of 5.05-5.61%. In 2017, observed intensity was 4.5. We considered both cases of discrete time(GDP input for R&D) and continuous time(researcher input). In view of research proces, which method is beter depends on the specifc industry and sector. The estimate from the former case is higher, which may comes from the fact that R&D expenditures include capital cost. We also introduced the method of cointegration relationship betwen the growth of knowledge, per capita capital and population in eror corection model. The results could answer the question whether the proces of Korean economy in short run adjustment and long run growth is described by 2nd Schumpeterian endogenous growth model well.
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