한국 여성의 총 출산 결정요인 분석
A Study on the Determination of Females' Births in Korea
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초록
본 연구에서는 한국 여성의 총 출산 결정요인을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 총 출산이 비음인 정수라는 특징을 이용하여 포아송 모형을 분석의 시발점으로 삼았다. 또한 표본에서 관측되는 총 출산의 선택이 0에서 4사이에서 이루어지는 특징을 감안하여, 총 출산 결정요인을 분석하는 보완적인 방법으로서 순서형 프로빗 모형을 이용하였다. 마지막으로 내생적인 설명변수가 있는 경우, 일반화된 적률법(Generalized Method of Moments, GMM)을 이용하여 비선형인 조건부 평균식을 추정하는 방안을 제안하였다. 모든 추정 결과에서 공통적으로 발견되는 특징은 여성의 소득, 종교 더미변수 그리고 혼인연령이 총 출산에 유의하게 영향을 미쳤다는 점이다.
Abstract
In this article, we empirically examine how the total number of births is determined in Korea. Our empirical study is based on the Poisson ML method since the total number of births is non-negative integer. The estimation results of the Poisson ML imply the underdispersion. To detour the underdispersion problem, we conduct the ordered probit estimation as a supplementary analysis since the total number of births is distributed as one of integers ranging from 0 to 4. In the ordered probit model, each integer can be interpreted to be the alternative of the total number of births chosen by each married woman. Finally, we suspect the endogeneity problem among the regressors. In particular, the woman's income and husband's income are very likely to be endogenous because of the simultaneity bias. To solve the endogeneity problem, we propose to use the optimal GMM approach in terms of conditional mean of nonlinear regression model. One robust finding throughout all proposed estimations is that the woman's income, the religion and the age at marriage have significant effects on the total number of births in Korea.
참고문헌 (12)
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