출산 의도를 반영한 출산 패턴과 영향 요인 분석
Intended/Unintended Fertility and Its Determinants in South Korea
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초록
최근까지의 국내 연구들은 저출산 현상의 심화와 함께 전반적으로 출산력에 있어서 사회경제적 변이가 크게 축소되었음을 지적하고 있다. 기존 연구들과 달리 본 연구는 출산 의도를 반영한 접근이 출산력에 대한 이해를 높이는 데 있어서 어떠한 추가적인 기여를 할 수 있는가를 살펴보고 있다. 자료상의 제약에도 불구하고 본 연구는 출산 의도를 반영한 접근이 출산력에서 관측되는 인구사회학적 변이를 보다 심층적으로 이해할 수 있는 잠재력을 가지고 있음을 보여 주고 있다. 특히 본 연구의 분석 결과는 과거의 의도하지 않은 출산 경험이 후속의 의도하지 않은 출산과 밀접히 연관되어 있음을 보여 줌으로써 의도하지 않은 출산이 고립된 사건이 아니라 연쇄적 경험임을 시사하고 있다. 방법론적으로 본 연구는 출산의 의도성을 고려하는 통계적 모형으로 이산형 다항로짓 생존모형의 효용성을 검토하고 있다.
Abstract
Prior research suggests that socioeconomic differentials in fertility have diminished substantially with the arrival of extremely low fertility in South Korea. This study extends prior research by incorporating the component of intendedness of pregnancy and fertility.Despite data limitations, the results indicate that distinguishing intended and unintended fertility provides useful information in understanding socio-demographic fertility differentials. In particular, the data show that women with unintended birth are significantly more likely to have subsequent unintended birth, indicating that unintended fertility is not an isolated event. Methodologically, this study shows the usefulness of discrete-time multinomial logit models in analyzing intended and unintended fertility. Competing-risks models provide valuable insights in understanding the different forces that lead women to different birth outcomes.
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