이중경제구조를 고려한 중국의 노동소득분배율 분석
Labor Income Share and Dual Economy in China
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초록
개혁ㆍ개방 이후 중국경제는 매우 빠르게 성장하면서 고도로 발달된 경제구조로 변화하고 있다. 한편 노동소득분배율은 상승과 하락을 반복하는 등 변동이 심하다. 본 연구는 중국의 이중경제구조를 고려하여 도농간 노동력 이동과 소득격차가 노동소득분배율에 끼치는 영향을 분석하였다. 농촌 잉여 노동력의 이동, 산업구조의 변화, 도농소득 격차 등이 영향을 끼치는 간단한 정태모형을 설정하고 중국 거시자료를 이용하여 이를 실증분석하였다. 실증분석 결과 모형에서 예측하는 대로 농민공이 늘어날수록 노동소득분배율이 높아진다. 즉 농촌 노동력이 도시로 이동하면 노동소득분배율이 증가할 수 있다. 그러나 1차산업 비율이 높을수록 노동소득분배율이 증가하는 것은 통계적으로 유의하지는 않을 수도 있다. 한편 이론의 예측과는 반대로 도농소득격차가 커질수록 노동소득분배율은 악화되는 것을 볼 수 있다. 중국 이중경제구조의 산물인 농민공이 노동소득분배율에 끼치는 영향은 유보적이라 하겠다.
Abstract
Since the reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has grown very rapidly. It is changing into a highly developed economic structure. On the other hand, the labor income share fluctuates, repeatedly rising and falling. This study analyzed the labor income share in consideration of China’s dual economic structure. A simple static model is set up. It models that internal immigration of peasant workers from the rural to the urban and the urban-rural income gap play critical roles in the change of the labor income share. This model is empirically tested using macro data from China. As predicted by the simple model, it was confirmed that the labor income share increased as the rural labor force increased. The higher the ratio of agricultural industry, the higher the labor income share increased in spite of high p-value. On the other hand, it can be seen that as the urban-rural income gap increases, the labor income share deteriorates. This result is inconsistent with the prediction of the model. China’s dual economic structure bears peasant workers who internally and illegally immigrate from the rural to the urban. This research concludes that their roles are indefinite in the explanation of labor income share in Chinese economy.
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