Bass 확산모형을 이용한 첨단 영상진단기기 수요 특성 국제 비교
International Comparative Analysis of Advanced Diagnostic Imaging Equipment Demand Characteristics Using the Bass Diffusion Model
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Objectives: This paper proposed the direction of future supply and demand management policies through demand prediction and demand character- istics analysis of advanced diagnostic imaging equipment using new medical technology. Methods: This study used the Bass Diffusion Model to analyze demand characteristics for advanced diagnostic imaging equipment. Derived diffusion coefficients were applied for medium to long-term demand pre- dictions (2021-2050). Parameter estimation employed non-linear regression analysis (SPSS 27.0). Demand characteristics were further analyzed using the ratio of the Bass model’s innovation to imitation coefficients for each country and device. Results: Comparing the imitation coefficients (q/p ratio) for computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) among South Korea, the United States, and Japan, South Korea has the highest q/p ratio for both CT and MRI. This implies that the influence of opinion leaders and group pressure is relatively more significant in South Korea, particularly in CT purchases. In the demand prediction results, South Korea’s q/p ratio for CT and MRI is notably larger, suggesting that institutional pressures and col- lective decision-making, rather than individual clinical decisions, play a significant role in the purchase of advanced diagnostic imaging Equipment. The q/p ratio for advanced diagnostic imaging Equipment in South Korea is higher than in other countries, reflecting a large power distance in the adoption of these technologies. Conclusions: This study utilizes the Bass Diffusion Model to predict the demand for advanced diagnostic imaging equipment in South Korea, Japan, and the United States. Findings highlight that imitation, not innovation, is the main driver of diffusion, with South Korea showing a faster adoption rate for CT and MRI. The study identifies factors influencing diffusion in South Korea, noting the impact of the quantity system on CT and the absence of influence on MRI. CT diffusion is positively linked to the quantity-based payment system, while MRI remains unaffected.
Abstract
Objectives: This paper proposed the direction of future supply and demand management policies through demand prediction and demand character- istics analysis of advanced diagnostic imaging equipment using new medical technology. Methods: This study used the Bass Diffusion Model to analyze demand characteristics for advanced diagnostic imaging equipment. Derived diffusion coefficients were applied for medium to long-term demand pre- dictions (2021-2050). Parameter estimation employed non-linear regression analysis (SPSS 27.0). Demand characteristics were further analyzed using the ratio of the Bass model’s innovation to imitation coefficients for each country and device. Results: Comparing the imitation coefficients (q/p ratio) for computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) among South Korea, the United States, and Japan, South Korea has the highest q/p ratio for both CT and MRI. This implies that the influence of opinion leaders and group pressure is relatively more significant in South Korea, particularly in CT purchases. In the demand prediction results, South Korea’s q/p ratio for CT and MRI is notably larger, suggesting that institutional pressures and col- lective decision-making, rather than individual clinical decisions, play a significant role in the purchase of advanced diagnostic imaging Equipment. The q/p ratio for advanced diagnostic imaging Equipment in South Korea is higher than in other countries, reflecting a large power distance in the adoption of these technologies. Conclusions: This study utilizes the Bass Diffusion Model to predict the demand for advanced diagnostic imaging equipment in South Korea, Japan, and the United States. Findings highlight that imitation, not innovation, is the main driver of diffusion, with South Korea showing a faster adoption rate for CT and MRI. The study identifies factors influencing diffusion in South Korea, noting the impact of the quantity system on CT and the absence of influence on MRI. CT diffusion is positively linked to the quantity-based payment system, while MRI remains unaffected.
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