베트남 투입산출표를 이용한 국제금융기구 지원의 경제적 효과 분석과 북한에 대한 시사점

Abstract

This paper utilizes Vietnam’s input-output table to assess the impact of assistance from international financial institutions through input-output analysis and finds implications for North Korea. Under the assumption that North Korea would implement reform and opening policies, the paper aims to analyze the economic effects of support that could be obtained by joining international financial institutions(World Bank and ADB). Since North Korea’s government and international organizations do not provide North Korea’s input-output table, Vietnam’s input-output table was used instead for the analysis. The amount of support by industry that can be obtained from international financial institutions was set as the average value over the 10 years from 2001 to 2010. As a result of the analysis, total output increased in the order of IDA, OCR, ADF, and IBRD. By industry, total output increased in the following order: energy·gas·water, public administration, and construction. These industries are highly correlated with Social Overhead Capital(SOC) investments. Therefore, this paper suggests that support from international financial institutions will help build the necessary SOC for North Korea’s economic development.