13세기 중국 지역의 기후변동과 기근

Abstract

In history of China, the period between the tenth and thirteenth century is understood as the ‘warm period.’ Based on a research in the field of natural science, which utilized the proxy-data methodology, the climate during the ‘warm period’ of the thirteenth century was mostly warm-humid. Available textual evidence suggests that the twelfth century was indeed in the cold climate. Abnormal temperature appeared more frequently at the thresh hold of the thirteenth century. This trend is more apparent in Area A (South of Huai Shui) and Area D (Unidentifiable region based on available historical evidence). Frequent presence of cold climate is also observed in Area B (Qinling Mountains and the Huabei-South of the Great Wall) between the eleventh and thirteen century. It is possible that intermittent extreme cold climate was present in this area. Evidently the late thirteenth century can be identified as a transitional period, for then cold climate appeared more strongly in the northern area such as Area C (North of the Great Wall) whereas that in the the South of Huai Shui was weaker. China is under heavy influence of Summer Monsoon of the Pacific, and as a result, in the past 1,800 years, it experienced humid climate during the warm period and dry climate during the cold period. As shown in textual evidence which has this time as the cold period, famine happened much more frequently after the mid-twelfth century and especially between 1180s and 1190s. Famine drastically weakened in the thirteenth century as the warm period began; however, starting from the 1260s, famine broke out more rapidly first in the Huabei area and then in the South of Huai Shui. The warm-humid climate of the early thirteenth-century favored the Mongol’s western campaign with better odds. Drop of temperature after the late 1260s brought the Jud phenomenon in the grasslands and increased the frequency of famine. These factors must have been one of many motivations that influenced Kublai to pursue more political and military actions to obtain more lands and surplus goods.