본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

정책의 혁신효율성과 수출성과 간 동태관계 분석

An empirical study on the dynamic relationship between innovative efficiency and export performance

이벽규|조원권|성봉석
사회과학연구소 (Institute of Social Sciences SOGANG UNIVERSITY)|2016.08|사회과학연구 (Journal of Social Science)|제42권 제2호|pp. 99-116|DOI 10.15820/khjss.2016.42.2.005

0

조회

0

다운로드

0

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

수출성과dynamic panelexport performance동태패널causality analysis인과분석정책의 혁신효율성Innovative efficiency of policy
주제분류사회과학일반

초록

본 연구는 정책의 혁신효율성이 수출성과에 미치는 동태적 영향을 분석하였다. 분석은 1995년-2012년 사이의 OECD 16개 국가의 태양 및 풍력 에너지 산업 패널 자료를 이용하여 수행되었다. 동태패널 프레임워크 분석을 통해 실증분석을 위한 모형을 설정하고, 모형의 내생성과 이분산성 등의 문제를 해결하기 위해 차분 GMM(difference generalized method of moments)을 추정하고, 그 계수에 대한 월드검정을 통해 인과관계를 파악하였다. 분석결과, 태양 및 풍력 에너지 산업 모두 정책의 혁신효율성과 수출성과 간에는 장기 및 단기적으로 직접적인 동태적 관계가 형성되어 있지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 그렇지만, 풍력에너지 산업의 경우 수출이 혁신효율성에 영향을 미치며, 이는 곧 GDP 제고에 기여하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 태양에너지 산업의 경우 수출과 GDP 간 단기적으로 양방향 관계가 형성되고 있는 것으로 나타났지만, 정책의 효율성까지는 이르지 못하는 것으로 나타났다.

Abstract

The study is to test the dynamic relationship between innovative efficiency of policy and export performance in solar and wind energy technology industries using panel data for 16 OECD countries over the period, 1995-2012. We set up the model to test the question of how innovative efficiency of policy may affect export performance based on the results of panel framework analyses. To deal with the correlation and endogeneity problems, we estimate difference generalized method of moments, in which the coefficients are tested by performing Wald-tests. The results of the study show that in the two sectors, there is no dynamic bilateral casual relationships between innovative efficiency and export performance in the long and the short run. In wind energy technology sector, export has a positive effect on innovative efficiency of policy, which contributes to enhancement of GDP in the short run. In solar energy technology sector, the short-run bilateral casual relationship between export and GDP exists, which, but, does not lead to increase in innovative efficiency of policy.

참고문헌 (55)

  1. 김성호, "효율성분석: 이론과 활용" (2007), 서울경제경영출판사
  2. 박만희, "효율성과 생산성분석" (2008), 한국학술정보(주)
  3. 이정동, "효율성 분석이론: DEA 자료포락분석법" (2012), ㈜ 지필미디어
  4. Abhyankar, Ravindra, "The Government of India’s Role in Promoting Innovation through Policy Initiatives for Entrepreneurship Development", Technology Innovation Management Review, 4(8), pp.11~17 (2014)
  5. Arellano, Manuel, "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations", Review of Economic Studies, 58, pp.277~297 (1991)
  6. Bäckstrröm, Kristoffer, "Public Policies and Solar PV Innovation: An Empirical Study Based on Patent Data", IAEE International Conference:Energy & the Economy (2014)
  7. Baily, Martin Neil, "Innovation and the Productivity Crisis" (1988), The Brookings Institution
  8. Banker, Rajive D., "Some Models for Envelopment Analysis: A Statistical Foundation", Management Science, 39(1), pp.1078~1092 (1984)
  9. Batina, Raymond G., "Public Goods and Dynamic Efficiency: The Modified Samuelson Rule", Journal of Public Economics, 41, pp.389~400 (1990)
  10. Bohne, Rolf Andrié, "Dynamic Eco-efficiency Projections for Construction and Demolition taste Recycling Strategies at the City Level", Journal of Industrial Ecology, 12, pp.52~68 (2008)
  11. Bointner, Raphael, "Innovation in the Energy Sector: Lessons Learnt from R&D Expenditures and Patents in Selected IEA Countries", Energy Policy, 73, pp.733~747 (2014)
  12. Bosetti, Valentina, "Optimal Energy Investment and R&D Strategies to Stabilize Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations", Resource and Energy Economics, 31(2), pp.123~137 (2009)
  13. Breusch, Trevor Stanley, "The LM Test and Its Application to Model Specification in Econometrics", Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), pp.239~254 (1980)
  14. Butler, Lucy, "Comparison of Feed-in Tariff, Quota and Auction Mechanisms to Support Wind Power Development", Renewable Energy, 33, pp.1854~1867 (2008)
  15. Cohen, Wesley M., "Handbook of the Economics of Innovation and Technological Change", pp.182~264 (1995), Blackwell
  16. Cohen, Wesley M., "Handbook of Industrial Organization, Vol. 2", pp.1059~1107 (1989), Elsevier
  17. Costantini, Valeria, "Environmental Regulation and the Export Dynamics of Energy Technologies", Ecological Economics, 66, pp.447~460 (2008)
  18. Cumming, Douglas, "Public Policy, Entrepreneurship, and Venture Capital in the United States", Journal of Corporate Finance, 23, pp.345~367 (2013)
  19. Del Ríö González, P., "Policy Iimplications of Potential Conflicts Between Short-term and Long-term Efficiency in CO2 Emissions Abatement", Ecological Economics, 65, pp.292~303 (2008)
  20. Del Río, P., "The Dynamic Efficiency of Feed-in Tariffs: The Impact of Different Design Elements", Energy Policy, 41, pp.139~151 (2012)
  21. Duqi, Andi, "Bank Performance Risk and Firm Financing", pp.215~241 (2011), Palgrave Macmillan
  22. Färe, Rolf, "Productivity Growth, Technical Progress and Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries", American Economic Review, 84, pp.66~83 (1994)
  23. Finon, Dominique, "The Static and Dynamic Efficiency of Instruments of Promotion of Renewable", Energy Studies Review, 12, pp.53~83 (2003)
  24. Griliches, Zvi, "R&D and Rroductivity", American Economic Review, 70, pp.434~448 (1980)
  25. Grubb, Michael, "Technology Innovation and Climate Change Policy: An Overview of Issues and Options", Keio Economic Studies, 41, pp.103~132 (2004)
  26. Chinese Renewable Energy and Technology Policies:Legal Compatibility with WTO Rules & Economic Interactions with Other Countries’ Climate and Industrial Policies, "Guérin, Emmanuel", Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales, ~, pp.Working paper no. 02 (2011), 2011
  27. Hall, Bronwyn H., "Does the Market Value R&D Investment by European Firms? Evidence from A Panel of Manufacturing Firms in France, Germany, and Italy", International Journal of Industrial Organization, 24, pp.971~993 (2006)
  28. Hansen, Lars P., "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moment Estimators", Econometrica, 50, pp.1029~1054 (1982)
  29. Hass, Reinhard, "Efficiency and Effectiveness of Promotion Systems for Electricity Generation from Renewable Energy Sources-Lessons from EU Countries", Energy, 36(4), pp.2186~2193 (2011)
  30. On the Success of Policy Strategies for the Promotion of Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources in the EU, "Held, Anne", ~ (2006)
  31. Jayamaha, Ariyarathna, "Productivity and Efficiency Measurement Technologies: Identifying the Efficiency of Techniques for Financial Institutions in Developing Countries", Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 2, pp.454~460 (2011)
  32. Trade Flows, Barriers and Market Drivers in Renewable Energy Supply Goods: The Need to Level the Playing Field, "Jha, Veena", International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, ~, pp.ICTSD Trade and Environment Issue Paper 10 (2009)
  33. Johnstone, Nick, "Renewable Energy Policies and Technological Innovation: Evidence Based on Patent Counts", Environmental and Resource Economics, 45, pp.133~155 (2010)
  34. Klessmanna, Corinna, "Status and Perspectives of Renewable Energy Policy and Deployment in the European Union-What is Needed to Reach the 2020 Targets?", Energy Policy, 39, pp.7631~7657 (2011)
  35. Kobos, Peter H., "Technological Learning and Renewable Energy Costs: Implications for US Renewable Energy Policy", Energy Policy, 34, pp.1645~1658 (2006)
  36. Kumbhakar, Subal C., "Stochastic Frontier Analysis" (2000), Cambridge University Press
  37. Liu, Tung, "Analyzing China’s Productivity Growth: Evidence from Manufacturing Industries", Economic Systems, 36, pp.531~551 (2012)
  38. Lovell, CA Knox, "Units Invariant and Translation Invariant DEA Models", Operations Research Letters, 18, pp.147~151 (1995)
  39. Lund, P. D., "Effectiveness of Policy Measures in Transforming the Energy System", Energy Policy, 35, pp.627~639 (2007)
  40. The Effectiveness and Efficiency of Public Spending, "Mandl, Ulrike", European Commission, ~, pp.Economic Paper 301 (2008)
  41. Menanteau, P., "Can Negotiated Agreements Replace Efficiency Standards as an Instrument for Transforming the Electricity Appliance Market?", Energy Policy, 31, pp.827~835 (2003)
  42. Menanteau, Philippe, "Prices versus Quantities:Choosing Policies for Promoting the Development of Renewable Energy", Energy Policy, 37, pp.799~812 (2003)
  43. Pesaran, M. Hashem, "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), pp.265~312 (2007)
  44. Popp, David, "Technology and the Diffusion of Renewable Energy", Energy Economics, 33(4), pp.648~662 (2011)
  45. Ramli, Noor Asiah, "Eco-efficiency in Greenhouse Emissions among Manufacturing Industries: A Range Adjusted Measure", Economic Modelling, 47, pp.219~227 (2015)
  46. The Definition and Measurement of Productivity, "Rogers, Mark", The University of Melbourne, Melbourne institute of applied economics and social research, ~, pp.Working paper 9 (1988), 98
  47. Sargan, John D., "The Estimation of Economic Relationships Using Instrumental Variables", Econometrica, 26(2), pp.393~415 (1958)
  48. Seiford, Lawrence M., "Modeling Undesirable Factors in Efficiency Evaluation", European Journal of Operational Research, 142, pp.16~20 (2002)
  49. Silvestre, Joaquim, "Public Microeconomics: Efficiency and Equity in Public Policy" (2012), Edward Elgar Publishing Limited
  50. Söderholm, Patrik, "Wind Power in Europe: A Simultaneous Innovation-diffusion Model", Environmental & Resource Economics, 36, pp.163~190 (2007)
  51. Soete, Luc, "Economic Growth and the Structure of Long-term Development", pp.272~299 (1994), Macmillan
  52. Sung, Bongsuk, "Causality between Public Policies and Exports of Renewable Energy Technologies", Energy Policy, 55, pp.95~104 (2013)
  53. Sung, Bongsuk, "Public Policy Supports and Export Performance of Bioenergy Technologies: A Dynamic Approach", Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 24, pp.477~495 (2015)
  54. Sutton, J., "Technology and Market Structure: Theory and History" (1998), The MIT Press
  55. Toke, David, "Renewable Financial Support Systems and Cost-effectiveness", Journal of Cleaner Production, 15, pp.280~287 (2007)

관련 논문AI추천

An empirical study of the relationship between the export dynamics on wind energy technology markets and the public policy성봉석, 송우용한국국제통상학회 · 국제통상연구2014 · 제19권 제1호재생에너지 기술의 수출에 대한 정치․경제요인의 영향 분석유념, 성봉석대한경영정보학회 · 경영과 정보연구2018 · 제37권 제2호Do export and technological specialization co-evolve in renewable energy sector? An evidence from OECD countries성봉석, 송우용한국국제통상학회 · 국제통상연구2012 · 제17권 제3호혁신창출을 위한 민간R&D 투자와 신제품 수출의 동태적 공진화 관계분석: 중국 하이테크 산업을 중심으로박상도, 성봉석사회과학연구원 부설 동북아연구소 · 동북아연구2016 · 제31권 제2호Granger Causality 검정과 공적분 검정을 통한 OECD 국가 재생에너지정책 효과 분석문광민, 정재관한국행정연구원 · 한국행정연구2021 · 제30권 제3호한국의 신재생에너지 발전량, 이산화탄소 배출량, 국제무역, 실질GDP, 비신재생에너지 발전량 간의 장·단기 영향김창범한국무역보험학회 · 무역금융보험연구2023 · 제24권 제1호

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (16건)

자영자 과잉과 서비스업 생산성의 관계, 그리고 문제 해결의 방향김태일pp. 1-27공공투자사업 경제성분석의 한계점과 그 대안탐색: 할인인자를 중심으로임보람, 박철민pp. 29-54주식형 펀드의 위험지표조성빈pp. 55-74개도국 기후변화 대응을 위한 주요 개발금융기관의 전략적 접근법 분석과 시사점임소영pp. 75-97동북아 제한적 비핵지대의 가능성과 안보적 함의: 이익균형론의 관점에서문병철pp. 117-136
원문 보기