혁신창출을 위한 민간R&D 투자와 신제품 수출의 동태적 공진화 관계분석: 중국 하이테크 산업을 중심으로
An analysis of dynamic co-evolution between Private R&D expenditure for inducing innovation and export of New products : An evidence from Chinese high-tech industry
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본 연구는 기존 문헌연구의 검토를 통해 중국 하이테크 산업을 대상으로 혁신창출을 위한 민간R&D 투자와 신제품 수출이 동태적으로 공진화 관계를 형성하는지의 여부를 파악하기 위해 동태패널 모형을 구축하였다. 분석기간은 2004년에서 2014년이고 14개 세분 산업을 대상으로 하였다(11년×14개 세분산업). 다양한 패널프레임워크 분석 결과에 기초하여 실증분석을 위한 패널오차수정 모형을 설정하였다. 실증분석 모형으로의 차분 도입에 따라 발생하는 오차항의 이분산성과 내생성 문제의 해결을 위해 도구변수를 활용하는 1차 차분 GMM을 추정하였다. 실증분석결과, 중국 하이테크 산업의 경우 장기적인 차원에서 혁신창출을 위한 민간R&D 투자와 신제품의 수출 간 동태적인 공진화 관계가 형성되어 있음을 확인하였지만, 단기적 차원에서는 통계적으로 유의한 관계가 형성되지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 아울러, 단기적으로 시차를 두고 신제품의 수출은 GDP, 그리고 GDP는 혁신창출을 위한 민간R&D 투자에 정(+)의 영향을 미쳤으며, 현재()의 혁신창출을 위한 민간R&D 투자가 다음 기()의 혁신창출을 위한 민간R&D 투자에 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나 신제품 수출, GDP, 혁신창출을 위한 민간R&D 투자 간 공진화를 촉진하는 느슨한 동태적 경로가 단기적으로 형성되어 있음을 보여 주고 있다.
Abstract
This article employs dynamic panel approach to test the effect of innovative Private R&D efficiency of policy on New product export in china high-tech industry. We use panel data for 14 high-tech industry in china for the period 2004-2014. Taking into account the results of panel framework analyses (e.g. normality, structural break, cross-sectional dependence, panel unit-root and cointegration tests), the panel vector autoregression (VAR) model in the first difference was used to test the causal relationship among the variables in question. To deal with the simultaneity problem introduced by differences and the existence of heteroskedasticity in the genuine error across countries, panel generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation were conducted, then on the basis of the difference in GMM estimation results, causality was determined by running Walt tests on the coefficients of variables. The results shows that there is long-run linear casual relationship between innovative Private R&D efficiency of policy and New product export in high-tech industry of the china, and that there is no short-run linear causal relationship running from innovative Private R&D efficiency of policy to export. Plus, the study reveals that there is not only shot-run linear bilateral relationship between New product export and GDP, GDP and innovative Private R&D efficiency but also existed dynamic path dependency.
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