중국산 김치 수입 관세 철폐가 국내 배추 시장에 미치는 영향분석
An Analysis of the Impact of Chinese Kimchi Import Tariff Elimination on the Korean Chinese Cabbage Market
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Since the launch of the second Trump administration, the United States has been imposing high reciprocal tariffs on countries around the world. In response to the US tariff policy, South Korea is considering joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as part of its trade diversification efforts, and China has also continued its pursuit of CPTPP membership since 2021. This study examined the impact of tariff elimination of Chinese kimchi imports on the Korean Chinese cabbage market from 2026 to 2035 using a dynamic partial equilibrium model, assuming that Korea and China join the CPTPP in 2026. According to the scenario analysis result, if tariffs on Chinese kimchi were eliminated immediately since 2026, Chinese cabbage imports would increase by an average of approximately 3% compared to the baseline over the forecast period. The increase in imports is expected to reduce cultivated area and production by up to 0.8%, and agricultural production value by up to 1.8% compared to the baseline. The results of this study would serve as useful information for policymakers and market participants i n the C hinese c abbage a nd kimchi i ndustries in f uture C PTPP or o ther t rade a greements w ith C hina.
Abstract
Since the launch of the second Trump administration, the United States has been imposing high reciprocal tariffs on countries around the world. In response to the US tariff policy, South Korea is considering joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as part of its trade diversification efforts, and China has also continued its pursuit of CPTPP membership since 2021. This study examined the impact of tariff elimination of Chinese kimchi imports on the Korean Chinese cabbage market from 2026 to 2035 using a dynamic partial equilibrium model, assuming that Korea and China join the CPTPP in 2026. According to the scenario analysis result, if tariffs on Chinese kimchi were eliminated immediately since 2026, Chinese cabbage imports would increase by an average of approximately 3% compared to the baseline over the forecast period. The increase in imports is expected to reduce cultivated area and production by up to 0.8%, and agricultural production value by up to 1.8% compared to the baseline. The results of this study would serve as useful information for policymakers and market participants i n the C hinese c abbage a nd kimchi i ndustries in f uture C PTPP or o ther t rade a greements w ith C hina.