한·미 FTA가 한육우 산업에 미친 영향에 대한 사후적 평가 -전남지역을 중심으로-
An Ex-post Analysis of the Impact of the Korea-US FTA on the Korean Beef Cattle Industry -Focused on Jeonnam Province-
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The Korea-US FTA was one of the most controversial FTAs Korea has ever signed and was expected to have a significant effect on the agriculture sector, especially the livestock industry. This study ex-post analyzed the impact of the Korea-US FTA on the Korean beef industry including the Jeonnam province using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. According to the scenario analysis results, if there was no Korea-US FTA, the beef imports would be reduced to as low as 0.24% to 4.19% compared to the Baseline applying existing Korea-US FTA beef tariff rates over the 2012 to 2022 periods. In addition, if there was no Korea-US FTA, the agricultural product value of Jeonnam and national Korean beef cattle would increase from 0.25% to 7.37% and 0.25% to 7.33%, respectively, compared to the Baseline. The results of the analysis are expected to be used as important information for policy establishment in preparation for CPTPP and supplementation of current FTA policies regarding Korean beef cattle not only for the central government but also Jeonnam province.
Abstract
The Korea-US FTA was one of the most controversial FTAs Korea has ever signed and was expected to have a significant effect on the agriculture sector, especially the livestock industry. This study ex-post analyzed the impact of the Korea-US FTA on the Korean beef industry including the Jeonnam province using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. According to the scenario analysis results, if there was no Korea-US FTA, the beef imports would be reduced to as low as 0.24% to 4.19% compared to the Baseline applying existing Korea-US FTA beef tariff rates over the 2012 to 2022 periods. In addition, if there was no Korea-US FTA, the agricultural product value of Jeonnam and national Korean beef cattle would increase from 0.25% to 7.37% and 0.25% to 7.33%, respectively, compared to the Baseline. The results of the analysis are expected to be used as important information for policy establishment in preparation for CPTPP and supplementation of current FTA policies regarding Korean beef cattle not only for the central government but also Jeonnam province.
참고문헌 (12)
- Choi, S. G., "Korea-US FTA, Impacts and Challenges in the Agricultural Sector" (2011), Korea Rural Economic Institute
- An Impact Analysis of an FTA with the U. S. and Policy Measures for the Korean Agriculture, "Choi, S. G.", Korea Rural Economic Institute, ~ (2007)
- 한석호, "한·EU FTA 농업부문 사후영향평가", 한국산학기술학회논문지, 17(7), pp.648~655 (2016), 한국산학기술학회[DOI]
- 한석호, "An analysis of ex-post assessment on Korea-Chile Free Trade Agreement with respect to the agricultural sector", Korean Journal of Agricultural Science, 43(3), pp.468~480 (2016), 농업과학연구소[DOI]
- 6 Years of Korea-US FTA, Changes and Challenges in Agricultural and Livestock Products Trade, "Ji, S. T.", Korea Rural Economic Institute, ~ (2018)
- 김인석, "역내포괄적동반자협정(RCEP)으로 인한 수입 쇠고기 관세율 변화가 한육우 농가 인력 수요에 미치는 영향분석", 농업경제연구, 61(2), pp.45~68 (2020), 한국농업경제학회
- 10Years of Korea-US FTA, Changes in Agricultural Food Trade, "Kim, K. P.", Korea Rural Economic Institute, ~ (2022)
- 8 Years of Korea-US FTA, Changes in Agricultural Food Trade, "Kim, K. P.", Korea Rural Economic Institute, ~ (2020)
- Lee, B. O., "Impact of Korea-US FTA Agreement on Korean Beef Industry and Its Strategies", pp.157~ (2006), Hanwooboard
- Meyers, W. H., "The FAPRI Global Modeling System and Outlook Process", Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, 6(1), pp.1~19 (2010)
- 7 Years of Korea-US FTA, Changes in Agricultural Food Trade, "Moon H. P.", Korea Rural Economic Institute, ~ (2019)
- Korea-US FTA Implementation Status Assessment Report, "Republic of Korea", ~ (2018)