남북관계 세 가지 제약요인과 대북정책

Abstract

This paper proposes a new North Korea policy based on three factors-structure, history, and characteristics of actors-which have restrained inter-Korean relations. Here ‘structure’ refers to the political structure of Northeast Asia, ‘history’ refers to two Koreas’ historical experience since 1945, and ‘characteristics of actors’ to the main characteristics of the two inter-Korean actors, North and South Korea. By using the three factors, the paper examines four issues for a new North Korea policy. The first issue is the relationship between the North Korea policy and the unification policy. Unlike most North Korea experts, I maintain that the North Korea policy should be a superordinate concept to the unification policy because of its multiple purposes and contents. Under the three restraining factors, the North Korea policy can cope with the changing policy environment more flexibly than the unification policy. Second, this paper classifies the goal of the North Korea policy into four categories: unification, integration, peace and security, and change in North Korea. Under the changing Northeast Asian structure in which China is rising as a G-2 member, it will be difficult for South Korea to achieve the four goals in the near future. North Korea has also resisted in changing its totalitarian system and South Korea policy, which adds an additional difficulty in the fulfillment of the policy goals. Third, the paper suggests to the South Korean government a ‘unstructured’ engagement policy using military deterrence until North Korea changes its system or South Korea policy. Lastly, it reviews the three policy implementation principlesreciprocity, the connection or disconnection between political and economic issues, and flexibility-to find a proper way of applying these principles to inter-Korean relations.