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한국경제의 추세성장률 하락과 요인분해

A Slowdown in Korea’s GDP Trend Growth and Its Decomposition

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주제분류경제학

초록

본 연구는 1981년부터 2019년까지 한국의 생산가능인구 1인당 실질 GDP 추세성장률을 추정하기 위해 추세성장률이 임의보행을 따르는 비관측요인모형을 사용한다. 추정 결과, 추세성장률은 외환위기를 극복하던 시기인 2000년 전후를 제외하고 1980년대 후반부터 2010년대 초반까지 지속해서 하락하였다. 추세성장회계를 통해 추세성장률 하락요인을 분석한 결과, 지속적인 추세성장률 하락은 노동생산성 둔화와 관련이 깊은 것으로 나타났다. 구체적으로 살펴보면, 1988년부터 1998년까지의 추세성장률 1차 하락기는 외환위기 이전부터 둔화되기 시작한 노동증강 총요소생산성에 가장 큰 영향을 받았다. 이러한 결과는 외환위기로 추세성장률이 하락했다는 가설과는 배치되는 것이다. 한편 부진한 투자는 2002년부터 2012년까지의 2차 하락기의 중요한 배경인 것으로 나타났다.

Abstract

Using an unobserved components model that features trend growth as a random walk, we find that GDP trend growth rates had gradually declined from the late 1980s to early 2010s in Korea. To uncover the underlying features of the slowdown, we use trend growth accounting. A major feature appears to be a significant decline in the growth rate of labor productivity. To be specific, the first gradual decline in trend growth, which started in 1988 and continued to 1998, is associated with a drop in TFP measured in labor-augmenting units. This finding is inconsistent with the hypothesis that the slowdown in GDP trend growth can be attributed to the 1997-1998 Korean financial crisis. Sluggish investment growth is behind the second period of the gradual slowdown, from 2002 to 2012.

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