Bayesian Decision Analysis of the Exceedance Probability in the Application of Occupational Exposure Limits
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Bayesian statistics holds promise for improved decision making with limited data. This approach will likely achieve wider acceptance in the environmental health and safety community if it is made available in easily accessible software. The objectives of this study were to explore the calculation parameters and to discuss the issues involved with Bayesian decision making of exceedance probability in the application of occupational exposure limits. Using an Excel spreadsheet developed by the author that can perform the Bayesian decision analysis, the sensitivity of the boundary conditions of the calculation domain were calculated and compared. In addition, the effects of uncertainty and number of data were investigated. The advantages and disadvantages of using a probability approach in occupational health are discussed. It was concluded that the choice of parameter space and choice of exposure matrix are important in Bayesian decision analysis in occupational health settings.
Abstract
Bayesian statistics holds promise for improved decision making with limited data. This approach will likely achieve wider acceptance in the environmental health and safety community if it is made available in easily accessible software. The objectives of this study were to explore the calculation parameters and to discuss the issues involved with Bayesian decision making of exceedance probability in the application of occupational exposure limits. Using an Excel spreadsheet developed by the author that can perform the Bayesian decision analysis, the sensitivity of the boundary conditions of the calculation domain were calculated and compared. In addition, the effects of uncertainty and number of data were investigated. The advantages and disadvantages of using a probability approach in occupational health are discussed. It was concluded that the choice of parameter space and choice of exposure matrix are important in Bayesian decision analysis in occupational health settings.
참고문헌 (29)
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