위해성평가의 불확실도 분석과 활용방안 고찰
Uncertainty Analysis and Application to Risk Assessment
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Objectives: Risk assessment is a tool for predicting and reducing uncertainty related to the effects of futureactivities. Probability approaches are the main elements in risk assessment, but confusion about the interpretationand use of assessment factors often undermines the message of the analyses. The aim of this study is to providea guideline for systematic reduction plans regarding uncertainty in risk assessment. Methods: Articles and reports were collected online using the key words “uncertainty analysis” on riskassessment. Uncertainty analysis was conducted based on reports focusing on procedures for analysis methodsby the World Health Organization (WHO) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). In addition,case studies were performed in order to verify suggested methods qualitatively and quantitatively with exposuredata, including measured data on toluene and styrene in residential spaces and multi-use facilities. Results: Based on an analysis of the data on uncertainty, three major factors including scenario, model, andparameters were identified as the main sources of uncertainty, and tiered approaches were determined. In the casestudy, the risk of toluene and styrene was evaluated and the most influential factors were also determined. Fivereduction plans were presented: providing standard guidelines, using reliable exposure factors, possessing qualitycontrols for analysis and scientific expertise, and introducing a peer review system. Conclusion: In this study, we established a method for reducing uncertainty by taking into account the majorfactors. Also, we showed a method for uncertainty analysis with tiered approaches. However, uncertainties aredifficult to define because they are generated by many factors. Therefore, further studies are needed for thedevelopment of technical guidelines based on the representative scenario, model, and parameters developed inthis study.
Abstract
Objectives: Risk assessment is a tool for predicting and reducing uncertainty related to the effects of futureactivities. Probability approaches are the main elements in risk assessment, but confusion about the interpretationand use of assessment factors often undermines the message of the analyses. The aim of this study is to providea guideline for systematic reduction plans regarding uncertainty in risk assessment. Methods: Articles and reports were collected online using the key words “uncertainty analysis” on riskassessment. Uncertainty analysis was conducted based on reports focusing on procedures for analysis methodsby the World Health Organization (WHO) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). In addition,case studies were performed in order to verify suggested methods qualitatively and quantitatively with exposuredata, including measured data on toluene and styrene in residential spaces and multi-use facilities. Results: Based on an analysis of the data on uncertainty, three major factors including scenario, model, andparameters were identified as the main sources of uncertainty, and tiered approaches were determined. In the casestudy, the risk of toluene and styrene was evaluated and the most influential factors were also determined. Fivereduction plans were presented: providing standard guidelines, using reliable exposure factors, possessing qualitycontrols for analysis and scientific expertise, and introducing a peer review system. Conclusion: In this study, we established a method for reducing uncertainty by taking into account the majorfactors. Also, we showed a method for uncertainty analysis with tiered approaches. However, uncertainties aredifficult to define because they are generated by many factors. Therefore, further studies are needed for thedevelopment of technical guidelines based on the representative scenario, model, and parameters developed inthis study.
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