미국의 유럽 미사일방어(MD) 추진과 러시아의 대응
U.S. Missile Defense in Europe and the Russian Reaction
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탈냉전기 미·러 관계에서 가장 핵심적인 유럽지역 안보현안은 미국의 옛 소련지역으로 NATO 확대와 유럽 미사일방어(Missile Defense, 이하 MD) 체제 구축이다. 옛 소련지역으로의 NATO 확대는 오바마 행정부가 2009년 사실상 우크라이나, 조지아의 NATO 가입 추진을 중단하면서 이 문제를 둘러싼 미·러 갈등은 일단 수면 아래로 가라앉았다. 그러나 오바마 행정부는 이란의 핵개발 및 장거리 미사일 개발이 지속됨에 따라서 비록 추진 방향과 시계(time schedule)를 변경시켰지만 전임 부시 행정부하에서 시작된 유럽 MD 추진 정책을 계승, 추진해 오고 있다. 러시아는 미국의 유럽 MD 추진이 러시아의 전략핵 억지력을 무력화시킴은 물론 ‘전략적 불안정’(strategic instability)을 야기시킬 것이라면서 강력히 반대하고 있다. 유럽 MD 체제 구축을 둘러싼 미·러 갈등은 유럽지역 차원을 뛰어넘어 동북아를 포함한 세계적인 전략적 불안정을 심화시킬 가능성이 있으며, 그에 따라 주요국간 군비경쟁이 심화될 가능성이 많다. 본 연구는 이러한 문제의식하에 미국이 현재 추진중인 유럽 MD체제 구축과 러시아의 대응을 분석, 평가, 전망하면서 한국의 정책적 고려사항을 제시하고 있다.
Abstract
During the post-Cold War period, most critical European security issues between the United States and Russia have been U.S. European missile defense(MD) and the expansion of the NATO to the former Soviet Republics. The conflict over the NATO enlargement to the former Soviet Republics had been subdued after the Obama Administration officially declared that the US will not push forward the expansion of NATO to Ukraine and Georgia in September 2009. But, as Iran's programs for nuclear weapons and the long-range missiles development continue, the Obama administration has kept to build European MD even though the Bush Administration's European MD plan was substantially changed. Russia is strongly opposed the United States' plan to build European MD. Russia has suggested that US's European MD neutralizes Russia's strategic nuclear deterrent and also causes 'strategic instability'. The conflict between the US and Russia over the MD is going beyond the dimensions of the conflict in Europe and deepening the global strategic instability including the Northeast Asia. Thus there are many possibilities that European MD will intensify the arms race between the major countries in the world. Recognizing these problems, this study firstly analyzes, evaluates, and foresees U.S. policy towards European MD and the Russian reactions and then presents policy considerations for Republic of Korea.
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