Logit 모형을 이용한 부산 북항 및 신항의 물동량 유치 경쟁력 분석

Abstract

In January, 2006, PhaseⅠ-1 (3 berth) terminal of Busan New Port began its operation for the first time among several terminals planned and construction of the other terminal of phaseⅠ will be completed within one or two years. But contrary to original expectations, the new terminal has failed to attract enough container cargo to utilize its facilities fully. In the short-term, the market potential for the new port is not expected to be so good. Considering various factors related to port development, the inducement of container cargo for the new port to handle might be more difficult due to the continuous construction activity at the new port. In other words, the future market for the port’s business may be more risky and unpredictable regarding the consecutive supply of port cargo. In this thesis, the future proportion of container cargo handled by the New Port & the existing port were estimated through the logit model, the probabilistic choice model. The logit model can be established based on the utility function of each variable affecting customers’ port preferences. This study is developed from other advanced studies by using SP (Stated Preference of customers) data to formulate utility function due to the lack of available RP (Real Preference of customers) data. In this thesis, freight rate, port-productivity, and the size of container cargo of the port’s hinterland were selected as the most sensitive variables to the port preference of customers. The impacts on the port preference of customers by the value-change of effecting variables were calculated quantitatively. From this result, the uncertainty of the port business market, caused by the continuous lack of port cargo supply, is expected to decrease, and it is hoped that the new port & the existing north port will operate normally according to its facility.