Structural Break Point Estimation in Output Growth: The Case of South Korea and the United States
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This study employed the structural breakpoint estimator developed by Baek (2024) to examine output growth rates in South Korea and the United States. For the U.S., the estimated break point occurred in 1973Q1, coinciding with the well-documented slowdown in productivity growth, which was highlighted in macroeconomic literature. In contrast, the conventional least-squares estimator yielded inconsistent results across sample periods. In the case of South Korea, both methods consistently estimated a structural break in 1997Q2, corresponding to the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis. These results demonstrate that the new estimator provides a more reliable inference in the presence of statistically small but economically significant structural changes.
Abstract
This study employed the structural breakpoint estimator developed by Baek (2024) to examine output growth rates in South Korea and the United States. For the U.S., the estimated break point occurred in 1973Q1, coinciding with the well-documented slowdown in productivity growth, which was highlighted in macroeconomic literature. In contrast, the conventional least-squares estimator yielded inconsistent results across sample periods. In the case of South Korea, both methods consistently estimated a structural break in 1997Q2, corresponding to the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis. These results demonstrate that the new estimator provides a more reliable inference in the presence of statistically small but economically significant structural changes.