기후변화에 따른 한강유역의 기상학적 가뭄지수 분석
Analysis of Future Meteorological Drought Index Considering Climate Change in Han-River Basin
0
조회
0
다운로드
8
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
기후변화로 인한 홍수와 가뭄 발생빈도의 증가는 전 세계적인 문제이다. 특히, 가뭄은 환경, 생태, 사회, 경제적인 측면에 영향을 미치는 심각한 재해로 인식되고 있다. 따라서 이에 대한 연구와 대책 마련이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 한강 유역의 기상학적 가뭄지수를 산정하여 기후변화가 가뭄에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 기후변화에 관한 정부 간 협의체 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)에서 제공하는 대표농도경로 시나리오(Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs)를 사용하여 기후변화에 따른 한강유역의 기상학적 가뭄 발생 횟수 변화를 일반적인 가뭄과 극심한 가뭄으로 구분하여 분석을 수행하였다. 1973 – 2010년을 현재 분석기간으로 선정하였으며, 시나리오 자료를 사용하여 미래기간(Target Ⅰ : 2011 - 2039, Target Ⅱ: 2040 - 2069, Target Ⅲ : 2070 - 2099)을 구분하 였다. -1.0과 –1.5보다 작은 표준강수지수의 발생횟수를 SPI 3, 6, 12 별로 각각 분석 하였다. 분석결과를 살펴보면, 한강유역의 강우의 경향성은 현재보다 증가할 것으로 예측되었고, 가뭄의 발생횟수는 미래로 갈수록 감소할 것으로 예측되었다. 그러나 장기가뭄으로 갈수록 가뭄발생횟수는 증가하는 것으로 분석되었고, 극심한 가뭄보다는 보통 가뭄의 발생횟수 역시 더욱 크게 산정되었으며, 한강유역의 미래가뭄분석의 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.
Abstract
The increased frequency of drought and flood due to climate change was a global problem. In particular, drought was recognized as a serious environmental, ecological, social, and economic disaster. Therefore, it is necessary to study the measures to prevent it. In this study, we will estimate the meteorological drought index in the Han River Basin and analyze the impact of climate change on drought. The change of the meteorological drought occurrence due to climate change in the Han River separated by the common drought and severe drought was analyzed using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The years 1973 - 2010 were selected for analysis in the current period. Using the scenario, we separated the future period (TargetⅠ: 2011 - 2039, TargetⅡ: 2040 - 2069, TargetⅢ : 2070 – 2099). The number of occurrences of less than -1.0 and -1.5 standard precipitation index were analyzed by SPI 3, 6, 12. Looking at the results, trends in rainfall in the Han River was expected to increase from the current figures, the occurrence of drought is predicted to decline in the future. However, the number of drought occurrence was analyzed to increase toward long-term drought. The number of severe drought occurrences was usually larger than the common drought estimated. Additional studies may be considered in addition to the agricultural drought, hydrological drought, socio-economic drought. This will be done by using efficient water management. The results can be used as a basis for future drought analysis of the Han River.
참고문헌 (36)
- Bronstert, A., "Effect of climate change influencing storm runoff generation : Basic considera-tions and a pilot study in Germany" (1999), Proceedings of the international RIBAMOD workshop
- Bergstrom, R. W., "Estimates of the spectral aerosol single scattering albedo and aerosol radiative effects during SAFARI 2000", J. of Geophysical Research, 108(D13) (2003)
- Choi, "Mega flood simulation occurred by consecutive extreme storm event and typhoon", Master, pp.2016
- Dagnachew, L., "Hydrological Response of a Catchment to Climate and Land Use Changes in Tropical Africa : Case Study South Central Ethiopia", J. of Hydrology, 275(1), pp.67~85 (2003)
- Edwards, D. C., "Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales", Climatology Report, 97(2) (1997), Colorado State Univ
- Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Desert Area Considering Irregularity in Rainfall Intensity and Distribution : A case Study in Wajib Basin, "Esra’a.", ~ (2015)
- Falkenmark, M., "Fresh water – time for a modified approach", pp.192~200 (1986), Ambio
- Feitelson, E., "Water poverty : Toward a meaningful indicator", Water Policy, 4(3), pp.263~281 (2002)
- Gleick, P. H., "Methods for evaluating the regional hydrologic impacts of global climatic changes", J. of Hydrology, 88(1), pp.97~116 (1986)
- Gabriele Villarini, "Flooding in texas: examination of temporal changes and impacts of tropical cyclones", J. of American Wter Resources Association, 49(4), pp.825~837 (2013)
- Han HC., "Inundation analysis of coastal urban area considering sea level rise and overflow of drainage system under climate change", Master, pp.2015
- Hong SJ, "Climate change impact assessment on han river long term runoff in south korea based on RCP climate change scenario", Terrestrial, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, 25(5), pp.689~ (2014)
- The fourth assessment report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change, "IPCC", ~ (2007)
- The fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change, "IPCC", ~ (2013)
- IPCC, "Summary for Policymakers. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change", pp.1~19 (2012), Cambridge University Press
- Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "IPCC", IPCC, 151~ (2014)
- 강나래, "기후변화가 도시배수시스템에 미치는 영향", 한국습지학회지, 13(3), pp.623~631 (2011), 한국습지학회
- Kim., "Impact of Sea Level Rise Under Climate Change on River Flood Level in Coastal Area", Master, pp.2016
- 김초롱, "기후변화 시나리오를 활용한 미래 한반도 물수급 전망", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 46(8), pp.807~819 (2013), 한국수자원학회
- 김덕환, "RCP 시나리오를 고려한 극치통계분석 및 빈도해석", 한국습지학회지, 15(4), pp.595~607 (2013), 한국습지학회
- 김덕환, "대표농도경로 시나리오에 의한 미래 강수량의 지역빈도해석", 한국습지학회지, 17(1), pp.80~90 (2015), 한국습지학회
- 김덕환, "기후변화에 따른 홍천강 유역의 수질 변화 분석", 한국습지학회지, 17(4), pp.348~358 (2015), 한국습지학회
- Kim SJ., "Impact of climate change on water resources and ecological habitat in a river basin", Doctor, pp.2011
- The Korean peninsula climate change prospect report, "Korea Meteorological Administration", ~ (2012)
- Kwak JW., "Copula theory based drought analysis and impact of climate change on drought", Doctor, pp.2012
- 곽재원, "표준강수지수 시계열의 가뭄특성치를 이용한 가뭄 재현기간 산정", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 46(8), pp.795~805 (2013), 한국수자원학회
- 곽재원, "Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Droughts in the Upper Namhan River Basin, Korea", KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 19(2), pp.376~384 (2015), 대한토목학회[DOI]
- 경민수, "기후변화가 서울지역의 기온 및 가뭄에 미치는 영향 평가 : AR4 SRES A2 시나리오를 기반으로", 대한토목학회 논문집B, 29(2), pp.181~191 (2009), 대한토목학회
- Lee DW., "Evaluation of future water deficit for anseong river basin under climate change", Master, pp.2016
- Lee KH, "Estimation of expected flood damage considering uncertainty and under climate change", Doctor, pp.2011
- Mckee T. B., "The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales", Prepints, 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, pp.179~184 (1993)
- Development of the advanced analytical techniques for the effect of natural disaster considering regional characteristics, "Ministry of Public Safety and Security", ~ (2015)
- Pitman, A.J, "Testing a GCM land surface scheme against catchment-scale runoff data", Climate Dynamics, 12(10), pp.685~699 (1996)
- 류소라, "수정 표준강수지수의 제안 및 적용", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 37(7), pp.553~567 (2004), 한국수자원학회
- Stewart, I. T., "Changes in snowmelt runoff uiming in western north america inder a ‘business as usual’ Climate change scenario", J. of climatc Change, 62(1), pp.217~232 (2004)
- Yu, P. S., "Impact of climate change on water resources in southern taiwan", J. of Hydrology, 260(1), pp.161~175 (2002)