SMR (Steam Methane Reforming) 수소제조 경제성 분석을 위한 개산견적 모델 개발
Development of Conceptual Cost Estimation Model for an Economic Analysis of Steam Methane Reforming based Hydrogen Production
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초록
본 연구에서는 대규모 추출(개질)수소 생산을 위하여 수증기 메탄 개질반응(steam methane reforming, SMR) 수소제조 개산견적 모델을 개발하였다. 개발한 모델을 이용하여 수소제조 시설의 규모에 따른연도별 CAPEX(capital expenditure), OPEX(operating expenditure), ABEX(abandonment expenditure) 를 산출하여 경제성 분석에 반영하였고, 경제성 분석의 다양한 입력변수들에 따른 민감도 분석을수행하였다. 그 결과, 수소제조 시설의 규모가 커질 때의 균등화 수소원가(levelized cost of hydrogen, LCOH) 와 순현재가치(net present value, NPV) 의 관계를 확인하였다. 일일 수소생산량 333톤 규모로 가정한 기본모델의 균등화 수소원가를 2.91 US$/kg으로 산출하고, 현실성이 있는 결과로 확인하였다. 이를 통해, SMR방식을 적용한 수소사업의 다양한 시나리오에 대해 신속하고 합리적인 경제성 분석이 가능하고, 효율적 의사결정에 기여할 수 있다.
Abstract
This study develops a steam methane reforming hydrogen production conceptual cost estimation model for large-scale hydrogen extraction. Capital expenditure, operating expenditure, and abandonment expenditure are estimated yearly based on the cost estimation model considering the scale effects of the hydrogen production facility. These are used in economic evaluation with sensitivity analysis according to the input parameters’ changes. The relationship between the levelized cost of hydrogen and the net present value according to the change of facility scale is confirmed. The base case model gives a hydrogen production of 333 tonnes/day and a levelized cost of 2.91 US$/kg, which has been verified as a reliable value. This model is expected to be further utilized in hydrogen production feasibility studies under various scenarios and contribute to efficient decision-making.
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