탄소배출권 및 세액공제에 따른 그레이수소 및 블루수소의 경제성 분석
Economic Analysis of Grey and Blue Hydrogen for Carbon and Tax Credits
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초록
본 연구에서는 미국 지역의 통계 자료를 활용하여 그레이수소와 블루수소의 경제성 분석 및 민감도 분석을 수행하였다. 본 연구를 통해 그레이수소와 블루수소의 생산 단가는 1.519, 1.568 $/kg H2 으로 분석되었다. 탄소배출권 가격은 32.3 $/ton CO2이상, 세액공제는 70 $/ton CO2이상, 최대 세액공제 기간은 14.6년 이상이면 블루수소가 그레이수소보다 경제적이었다. 민감도 분석에서 블루수소의 생산 단가는 최대 세액공제 기간, 세액공제액, 탄소배출권 가격 순으로 민감도가 높았다. 따라서 탄소배출권 및 세액공제는 수소 단가에 크게 영향을 미치므로 블루수소 경제성 분석시 탄소배출권 및 세액공제의 변동성이 반드시 고려되어야 할 것이다. 추가적으로 국내 블루수소 도입시 운송 형태인 LOHC (Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carries), 액화 수소, 암모니아에 대한 수소 단가는 각각3.393, 7.011, 3.864 $/kg H2로 분석되었다.
Abstract
Economic and sensitivity analyses of grey and blue hydrogen were conducted using statistical data from the United States. This study indicated that the production costs of grey and blue hydrogen were 1.519 and 1.568 $/kg H2, respectively. The blue hydrogen would be more economically attractive than the grey hydrogen if the carbon credit was higher than 32.3 $/ton CO2, tax credit was higher than 70 $/ton CO2, or maximum tax credit period was longer than 14.6 years. In the sensitivity analysis, the production cost of the blue hydrogen was most sensitive to the maximum tax credit period, followed by tax credit, and carbon credit, in order of sensitivity. Thus, volatility of the carbon and tax credits should be considered in the economic analysis of the blue hydrogen because they have a major impact on the its production cost. In addition, the unit import costs of the blue hydrogen for hydrogen carrier types were 2.716, 5.205, 3.232 $/kg H2 for liquid organic hydrogen carriers, liquefied hydrogen, and ammonia, respectively.
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