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Solving the Korean Conundrum: Russia’s Interaction with Major Actors in the Trump-Moon Era

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Russia seeing peace, stability and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as priorities, will try to play the role of peacemaker and more or less neutral observer in a situation which has shifted due to the new leadership in Seoul and Washington. The authors argue that Russia should pay special attention the role of Moon Jae In. If he can implement a new policy, this could be a game-changer and Seoul could become the principal partner for Russia in solving the Korean conundrum. If the Trump administration would turn from pressure to diplomacy, possibilities for US-Russia cooperation could increase. Russia would mostly support Chinese positions but keep its own line. Understanding such tactics in this strategic triangle is the key to understanding Moscow’s efforts regarding the Korean problem, including multilateral aspects. At the same time, Russia cannot ignore North Korea being one of the few neighboring countries maintaining good relations with Pyongyang. The authors suggest the options for a start of a diplomatic process between the two Koreas and between North Korea and the U.S., as well as in multilateral format and analyze the role Russia might play.

Abstract

Russia seeing peace, stability and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as priorities, will try to play the role of peacemaker and more or less neutral observer in a situation which has shifted due to the new leadership in Seoul and Washington. The authors argue that Russia should pay special attention the role of Moon Jae In. If he can implement a new policy, this could be a game-changer and Seoul could become the principal partner for Russia in solving the Korean conundrum. If the Trump administration would turn from pressure to diplomacy, possibilities for US-Russia cooperation could increase. Russia would mostly support Chinese positions but keep its own line. Understanding such tactics in this strategic triangle is the key to understanding Moscow’s efforts regarding the Korean problem, including multilateral aspects. At the same time, Russia cannot ignore North Korea being one of the few neighboring countries maintaining good relations with Pyongyang. The authors suggest the options for a start of a diplomatic process between the two Koreas and between North Korea and the U.S., as well as in multilateral format and analyze the role Russia might play.

참고문헌 (66)

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