The Nuclear Challenge in the Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong Un Regime: Continuity and Dilemmas
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This essay examined how the ongoing logic of successive abandonment of hostile policies toward North Korea during the Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong Un regimes has led to North Korea’s advancement in nuclear capabilities and how this trend has created dilemmas within the North Korean regime. The problem is that if North Korea does not get the new calculation method it aspires, it will have no choice but to pursue a military-first policy, focused on enhancing and accelerating nuclear and missile capabilities. This trend will ultimately increase the likelihood that, over time, North Korea will face regime endurance challenges, not from external threats but from the rising costs of controlling internal discontent. Eventually, the nuclear and military-first policies that have sustained three generations of hereditary dictatorships may become independent variables that facilitate the likelihood of regime change in North Korea by raising the cost of regime durability. Therefore, the direction of North Korean policy now needs to develop strategies that take advantage of the dilemma faced by the Kim Jong Un regime, focusing on the acceleration of the nuclear policy and the military-first policy.
Abstract
This essay examined how the ongoing logic of successive abandonment of hostile policies toward North Korea during the Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong Un regimes has led to North Korea’s advancement in nuclear capabilities and how this trend has created dilemmas within the North Korean regime. The problem is that if North Korea does not get the new calculation method it aspires, it will have no choice but to pursue a military-first policy, focused on enhancing and accelerating nuclear and missile capabilities. This trend will ultimately increase the likelihood that, over time, North Korea will face regime endurance challenges, not from external threats but from the rising costs of controlling internal discontent. Eventually, the nuclear and military-first policies that have sustained three generations of hereditary dictatorships may become independent variables that facilitate the likelihood of regime change in North Korea by raising the cost of regime durability. Therefore, the direction of North Korean policy now needs to develop strategies that take advantage of the dilemma faced by the Kim Jong Un regime, focusing on the acceleration of the nuclear policy and the military-first policy.
참고문헌 (32)
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