개별여행비용법을 통한 갯벌관광객의 방문편익 추정모형에 대한 실증비교분석

Abstract

Tidal flat has various functions such as biodiversity, reduction of greenhouse gas, etc. The paper is to estimate the benefits that visitors would receive by visiting the tide flat using individual travel cost which is one of non-market good valuation methods. For estimating consumer surplus, we used count data models. Count data econometric techniques have been applied with increasing frequency to travel cost models of recreation demand. That is, count data models are intuitively appealing for recreational demand because they deal with non-negative integer valued dependent variables. For recreation with tidal travel, the number of trips is a non-negative integer. The integer characteristic is less important than the non-negative range of the variable. The count data model specifies the quantity demanded, trips, as a random nin-negative integer, with a mean that is dependent on exogenous regressors. For the Poisson, the functional form for expected demand is typically exponential. Shaw(1988) developed a Poisson model(PM) that corrected for problems that corrected for problems associated with samples drawn from on-site recreational surveys. Also, the sample for survey is truncated because it does not include non-users. This study has extended the application of count models to include truncated Poisson model(TPM). A negative binomial model(NBM) and truncated negative binomial model(TNBM) have not extended that there are no exist the over-dispersion problem. Shin(2012) applied count models to natural recreation site focusing on the Yeongsan river in korea, while Eom(2008) applied this class of model to valuing of leisure time revealed through recreation demand for environmental resources. None of these papers developed for tidal tourists. The primary data used in this study came from two sources: an on-site survey of visitors in Taean-gun and data of the tideland experience tourism association in Taean-gun. The visiting survey was used to obtain individual characteristics. These characteristics included visitors’ information such as visitors’ knowledge, income, and family, etc. Also, the association’s data provided information about the total number of visitors for the tideland experience tourism association in Taean-gun between 2010 and 2012. The survey was administered to visitors at a sample of randomly chosen visiting beaches during the summer of 2013, Surveying began August and ended October 2013. In total 105 surveys were administered. A key point of analysis is the demonstration that any count data model provides both per trip welfare measures and the quantity demanded measures that are needed to find total surplus for visiting tidal flats. The findings of the study are as follows. First, four different specifications of the model were studied theoretically using maximum-likelihood regression. The coefficient on in the possion model(PM) is zero suggesting that both BM and NBM are inappropriate. There is no exist the over-dispersion problem. The PM and TPM was applied to estimate the demand of tideland experience tourism and consumer surplus. The Poisson likelihood function is straightforward. We observe the number of tidal trips each individual takes, and then use equation to write the provability of observing that number of trips. Second, TPM was statistically more suitable than the other models. That is, the analysis suggests that the TPM is more preferred than PM. All parameters for TPM estimated are statistically significant and theoretically valid. Third, benefit measures associated with the TPM is calculated using the estimated parameter on the trip cost(). The consumer surplus measure for a person who takes a single trip is . Consumer surplus for the average person in the population is calculated as . The TPM suggests an per trip surplus which is per consumer surplus for one-visit in the tideland experience tourism, 17,825won. We can also compute the consumer surplus for the per consumer surplus is 22,692won per year. Fourth, the number of visitors for visiting the tideland experience tourism in Taean-gun is about 231,438 per year. The total economic value of visitors for visiting the tideland experience tourism in Taean-gun is estimated 5,251,776,684won. These results suggest that the tourism of tidal flats provide positive benefit to Taean-gun. Also, this paper may be able to help policy makers understanding the tourism of tidal flats in the Korea.