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후보자토론회 빈도에 대한 유권자 선호 분석

Analyzing Voters’ Preferences for TV Debates

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초록

유권자의 후보자토론회 선호 혹은 평가의 차이는 왜 발생하는가? 이 연구는 유권자의 후보자토론회 평가를 분석하여 어떠한 변수가 유권자 선호나 태도에 영향을 미치는가를 파악한다. 이 논문은 더 많은 정보가 필요한 유권자일수록 더 많은 토론회를 원한다는 가설과 선거 경쟁에서 앞선 후보자를 지지하는 유권자일수록 더 많은 토론회를 원하지 않는다는 가설을 검토한다. 이 가설들을 경험적으로 살펴보기 위해 이 연구는 지난 2017년과 2022년 대통령선거와 2020년 국회의원선거 후보자토론회에 대한 유권자 평가를 분석한다. 이 연구의 회귀분석 결과에 따르면, 여론조사 결과에서 앞서고 있는 후보자를 지지하거나 당선된 후보자를 선택한 유권자일수록 토론회가 부족하지 않다는 의견을 표하는 경향이 있다. 반면 필요에 따른 토론회 선호는 토론회 이전과 이후, 그리고 선거에 따라 복합적인 양상을 보인다.

Abstract

Why do voters show different political preferences? Analyzing voters’ preferences for TV debates, this study examines whether political preferences are based on their needs and/or prior choices. This study argues that voters who need more information require more debates. Furthermore, I hypothesize that citizens who support candidates leading in electoral races or won the election are less likely to prefer more televised debates. This study examines voters’ preferences for TV debates during the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections and the 2020 congressional elections in Korea. According to the regression results of this study, voters who support candidates leading in electoral races or won the election do not want more TV debates. In contrast, voters who need more information about elections do not want more or fewer TV debates in a consistent manner.

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