Is good beginning half done - Measuring the impacts of non-regular initial employment on future employment prospects in Japan -
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일본 일반사회조사 (JGSS)의 데이터를 이용해서, 본 연구는 일본에서의 첫 일자리의 고용형태가 이후의 고용전망에 미치는 효과를 분석하였다. 첫 일자리 고용 지위의 잠재적 내생성을 통제하기 위해서, 본 연구는 단일변량 프로빗 모델과 이변량 프로빗 모델을 함께 사용하여 분석하였으나. 첫 일자리 고용 지위의 내생성에 대한 증거는 발견되지 않았다. 최종 학교를 마친 후 비정규직으로 첫 취업을 한 노동자는 정규직으로 첫 취업한 노동자에 비해서 현재 정규 일자리를 가질 확률이 유의하게 낮았다. 또한 본 연구는 비정규직 첫 취업 효과의 민감도(sensitivity)를 평가하기 위해 여러 모형을 설정하여 분석하였으나, 비정규직 첫 취업의 부정적 효과는 대체로 안정적이었다.
Abstract
Using data from Japanese General Social Surveys (JGSS), this study examines the effects of non-regular initial employment status on future employment prospects. In order to deal with the potential endogeneity of initial employment status, empirical analyses use bivariate probit models as well as univariate probit models. However I found almost no evidence that the univariate probit models were subject to endogeneity bias. The empirical results indicate that getting non-regular jobs at the year of leaving school reduces significantly the probability of obtaining regular full-time job at present. I also implemented several sensitivity tests, and the finding were relatively stable across several specifications.
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