The Corruption Scandal and Vote Switching in South Korea’s 19th Presidential Election
0
조회
0
다운로드
7
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This paper examines how South Korea’s 2016 corruption scandal and subsequent presidential impeachment affected voter decisions in that country’s 19th presidential election. Both aggregate and individual-level analyses indicate that the landslide defeat of the country’s conservative party does not portend a fundamental shift in voter-party alignment. At the aggregate level, we find that the normal vote share of the conservative party in the 19th presidential election was similar to that of the 18th. At the individual level, an analysis of the 2017 Korean Election Panel Studies data demonstrates that regional and generational cleavages are influential factors in vote switching by majorparty supporters. Aside from their attitudes regarding the impeachment, those who changed their votes from conservative parties generally hold similar issue preferences to those who did not change. Therefore, once the political salience of the impeachment issue wanes, it is questionable whether the current disunity will end.
Abstract
This paper examines how South Korea’s 2016 corruption scandal and subsequent presidential impeachment affected voter decisions in that country’s 19th presidential election. Both aggregate and individual-level analyses indicate that the landslide defeat of the country’s conservative party does not portend a fundamental shift in voter-party alignment. At the aggregate level, we find that the normal vote share of the conservative party in the 19th presidential election was similar to that of the 18th. At the individual level, an analysis of the 2017 Korean Election Panel Studies data demonstrates that regional and generational cleavages are influential factors in vote switching by majorparty supporters. Aside from their attitudes regarding the impeachment, those who changed their votes from conservative parties generally hold similar issue preferences to those who did not change. Therefore, once the political salience of the impeachment issue wanes, it is questionable whether the current disunity will end.
참고문헌 (33)
- Bartolini, Stefano, "Identity, Competition and Electoral Availability: The Stabilization of European Electorates, 1885–1985", pp.1885~1985 (1990), Cambridge University Press
- Burden, Barry C, "Voter Turnout and the National Election Studies", Political Analysis, 8(4), pp.389~398 (2000)
- Campbell, Angus, "Elections and the Political Order", pp.40~62 (1966), John Wiley and Sons, Inc
- Campbell, Angus, "The American Voter" (1960), University of Chicago Press
- Campbell, Angus, "Elections and the Political Order" (1966), John Wiley and Sons, Inc
- Cho, Sung-dai, "Gyunyeol gujo-wa jeongdang chegye: jiyeokjuui, inyeom, geurigo 2007-nyeon hanguk daetongnyeong seongeo(Cleavage Structure and Party System: Regionalism, Ideology and the 2007 Korean Presidential Election)", Hyeondae jeongchi yeongu (Journal of Contemporary Politics), 1(1), pp.169~198 (2008)
- 최준영, "지역균열의 변화 가능성에 대한 경험적 고찰: 제17대 국회의원선거에서 나타난 이념과 세대 균열의 효과를 중심으로", 한국정치학회보, 39(3), pp.375~394 (2005), 한국정치학회
- Clark, Terry Nichols, "Are Social Cleavages Dying?", International Sociology, 6(4), pp.397~401 (1991)
- Converse, Philip E., "Elections and the political order", pp.9~39 (1966), John Wiley and Sons, Inc
- Dalton, Russell J., "The Apartisan American: Dealignment and Changing Electoral Politics" (2013), CQ Press
- Dalton, Russell J., "Electoral Change:Realignment and Dealignment in Advanced Industrial Democracies" (1984), Princeton University Press
- Darmofal, David, "The Dynamics of Critical Realignments: An Analysis Across Time and Space", Political Behavior, 32(2), pp.255~283 (2010)
- Dassonneville, Ruth, "Volatile Voters, Short-term Choices? An Analysis of the Vote Choice Determinants of Stable and Volatile Voters in Great Britain", Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 26(3), pp.273~292 (2016)
- Evans, Geoffrey, "The Continued Significance of Class Voting", Annual Review of Political Science, 3, pp.401~417 (2000)
- Flanagan, Scott C., "Parties under Stress: Realignment and Dealignment in Advanced Industrial societies", West European Politics, 7, pp.7~23 (1984)
- Franklin, Mark N., "Electoral Change: Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries" (1991), Cambridge University Press
- Horiuchi, Yusaku, "The Presidency, Regionalism, and Distributive Politics in South Korea", Comparative Political Studies, 41(6), pp.861~882 (2007)
- Inglehart, Ronald, "The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles Among Western Publics" (1977), Princeton University Press
- 장승진, "2012년 양대 선거에서 나타난 계층균열의 가능성과 한계", 한국정치학회보, 47(4), pp.51~70 (2013), 한국정치학회[DOI]
- Kang, Won-Taek, "Hanguk-ui seongeo jeongchi: inyeom, jiyeok, sedae-wa midieo (Electoral Politics in Korea: Ideology, Region, Generation, and Media)" (2003), Pureun Gil
- Key, V. O., Jr, "A Theory of Critical Elections", Journal of Politics, 17(1), pp.3~18 (1955)
- Kim, HeeMin, "Changing Cleavage Structure in New Democracies: An Empirical Analysis of Political Cleavages in Korea", Electoral Studies, 27, pp.136~150 (2008)
- 김무경, "한국인의 이념정향과 갈등", 사회과학연구, 13(2), pp.6~31 (2005), 사회과학연구소
- Kwon, Hyeok Yong, "Targeting Public Spending in a New Democracy:Evidence from South Korea", British Journal of Political Science, 35(2), pp.321~341 (2005)
- Lee, Dong Ok, "Politics and Regions in Korea: An Analysis of the Recent Presidential Election", Political Geography, 15(1), pp.99~119 (1996)
- Lee, Kap Yun, "Hangugin-ui tupyo haengtae (Korean Voting Behavior)" (2011), Humanitas Books
- Lee, Kap Yun, "Hanguk-ui jeongchi gyunyeol gujo: jiyeok, gyecheung, sedae mit inyeom (Political Cleavages in Korea: Region, Class, Generation, and Ideology)" (2014), Oreum
- Lewis-Beck, Michael S., "The American Voter Revisited" (2008), University of Michigan Press
- Lipset, Seymour M., "Party Systems and Voter Alignments:Cross-National Perspectives", pp.1~21 (1967), Free Press
- Long, Scott J., "Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables" (1997), Sage Publications
- Moon, Woojin, "Decomposition of Regional Voting in South Korea:Ideological Conflicts and Regional Interests", Party Politics, 11(5), pp.579~599 (2005)
- Randall, Vicky, "Party Systems and Voter Alignments Revisited", pp.244~265 (2001), Routledge
- Whitten, Guy D., "Heightening Comparativists’Concern for Model Choice: Voting Behavior in Great Britain and the Netherlands", American Journal of Political Science, 40(1), pp.231~260 (1996)