The Stability and Volatility of Partisan Support among Korean Voters

Abstract

This study derives from the question of why the “politics of wind” is being repeated in the Korean electoral politics. Although the question can be addressed in many different ways, this study focuses on the behavioral aspect by examining the stability and volatility of partisan support among Korean voters. Theoretically, there are many reasons to expect the stability of partisan support among Korean voters to be relatively low. Our empirical analysis confirms the theoretical expectation. Korean political parties do not have stable support bases. This lack of stability in partisan support among voters might be at the heart of the “instability, uncertainty, and dynamism” by which the Korean electoral politics is often characterized. According a discriminant analysis, the distinguishing characteristics of stable supporters, when compared to stable non-voters, and swing voters, are three-fold. They are more likely to be old, ideologically conservative, and residing in either Youngnam or Honam regions. According to another discriminant analysis, this time distinguishing between stable GNP supporters and stable DP supporters, stable GNP supporters are likely to be old, ideologically conservative,and residing in Youngnam, which is exactly what we would expect them to be. On the other hand, stable DP supporters are likely to be old (“not young”), and residing in Honam. It must be emphasized here that “region” is the only factor distinguishing between stable GNP and stable DP supporters. Age and ideology do not have the expected effects for stable DP supporters. This result suggests that regional cleavage is not only the oldest but also the most stable factor in the Korean party politics. It is the only factor distinguishing between stable GNP supporters and stable DP supporters. On the other hand, the result suggests that the two relatively cleavages (age and ideology) are not yet firmly ingrained into the party politics. In this sense, the politics of wind could be interpreted as a phenomenon that is occurring in the process of adapting to these new cleavages.