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총리 재임 기간과 내각 당파성의 상호작용이 사회복지지출에 미치는 영향

The Interaction Effect of Years in Office and Partisanship on Social Expenditure

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주제분류행정학

초록

본 연구는 1981∼2019년 유럽 의원내각제 국가를 중심으로 내각 당파성에 따라 총리의 재임 기간이 복지지출 증가율에 미치는 영향이 다르게 나타나는가를 통치 비용(cost of ruling)의 관점으로 분석하였다. 분석 결과 장기 집권으로 발생하는 지지도 하락이라는 통치 비용에 대응하기 위하여 복지지출에 미치는 영향이 내각 당파성에 따라 다르게 나타났다. 장기간 재임한 총리와 좌파 내각 및 중도 내각은 복지지출의 유의미한 관계가 없는 반면, 장기간 재임한 총리와 우파 내각에서는 복지지출이 증가하였다. 1980년대 이후 세계화, 저성장, 우파정권의 집권으로 인하여 복지국가가 쇠퇴 될 것이라는 예측하에서, 본 연구는 장기간 재임한 총리와 우파 내각에서 통치 비용에 대응하기 위하여 복지지출을 증가시킬 수 있음을 실증적으로 분석한 의의가 있다.

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the interaction effect of years in office and partisanship on social expenditures in European parliamentary countries between 1981 and 2019. The analysis reveals different responses of social expenditure based on partisanship in relation to the costs of ruling—indicating a tendency for long-serving incumbents to experience a decline in overall popularity. Despite predictions of a diminishing welfare state since the 1980s due to globalization, low economic growth, and the rise of right-wing governments, this study empirically shows that long-serving prime ministers with right-wing cabinets increase social expenditure as a means to address the costs of ruling.

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