수익경영을 위한 항공수요 예측에 관한 연구
A Study on Forecasting Airline`s Demand for the Revenue Management
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In recent years, Airlines are undergoing a keen price competition against each other and are facing sky-rocketing prime costs. They thus need, above all, an accurate forecast on the future demands for airline services. The demand forecast in airline business could be classified into short-term and long-/mid-term forecasts. Short-term forecasting is to help airlines raise monthly and quarterly profits; long-/mid-term forecasting is useful for 1 to 3-year-long policy planning, such as purchasing new aircraft, inaugurating new routes, or deciding frequency on a certain route. This study analyzes forecast of short-term demand, applying the time-series model to the quarterly data from 1995 to 2006. In the short-term forecasts, the Winter's Model of the time-series analysis turns out the ideal analytical tool.
Abstract
In recent years, Airlines are undergoing a keen price competition against each other and are facing sky-rocketing prime costs. They thus need, above all, an accurate forecast on the future demands for airline services. The demand forecast in airline business could be classified into short-term and long-/mid-term forecasts. Short-term forecasting is to help airlines raise monthly and quarterly profits; long-/mid-term forecasting is useful for 1 to 3-year-long policy planning, such as purchasing new aircraft, inaugurating new routes, or deciding frequency on a certain route. This study analyzes forecast of short-term demand, applying the time-series model to the quarterly data from 1995 to 2006. In the short-term forecasts, the Winter's Model of the time-series analysis turns out the ideal analytical tool.