A Study of the Import and Export Trade Effect on the Carbon Emissions in Northeast China

Abstract

A low-carbon economy is a sustainable development strategy that simultaneously promotes economic growth and environmental protection. As climate change poses a global threat, Northeast China continues to rely on an industry-centered trade structure with significant carbon emissions. This study empirically analyzes the relationship between import and export trade and carbon emissions in the three northeastern provinces (Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang) using time-series data from 1999 to 2019. By applying unit root tests, Johansen cointegration, and Granger causality tests, the results reveal a long-term correlation between trade and carbon emissions, with exports acting as a Granger cause of emissions. These findings suggest that the region’s trade structure directly influences energy consumption and carbon output, highlighting the need for low-carbon industrial transformation. Accordingly, this study emphasizes the necessity of enhancing energy efficiency, regulating high-carbon exports, and promoting service and digital trade to develop a smart low-carbon trade strategy in Northeast China.