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The Nonlinear Effect of Industrial Structural Upgrading on Carbon Emission Intensity: An Empirical Analysis of 30 Provinces in China

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Given the urgent and disturbing state of global warming, a meticulous investigation into the determinants influencing carbon emission intensity becomes imperative. This paper comprehensively analyzes carbon emission intensity data and its influencing factors from 1997 to 2019 across 30 provinces in China. By constructing a panel dataset and employing the panel threshold model as a methodological tool, our study explores the nonlinear relationship between industrial upgrading and carbon emission intensity within the regional scope of Chinese provinces. Furthermore, in this specific context, our study examines various economic development determinants' impact on carbon emission intensity. Empirical research results indicate that the relationship between China's industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission intensity is rather complex. As the industrial structure continuously upgrades, a U-shaped curve relationship is observed between the two variables. Energy intensity and technological progress exhibit positive impacts of 0.56% and 0.04%, respectively, on carbon emission intensity. In contrast, the inhibitory effect of per capita GDP on carbon emission intensity is 0.17%. Therefore, to achieve low-carbon and sustainable development, the Chinese government must strategically prioritize cultivating high-value-added service sectors in the tertiary industry. Simultaneously, while promoting and developing low-carbon technologies, coordination is necessary to enhance energy-intensive sectors' synchronous enhancement. Additionally, the scope of efforts must also include the systematic decarbonization of the second industry by enhancing energy efficiency and increasing the proportion of clean energy utilization.

Abstract

Given the urgent and disturbing state of global warming, a meticulous investigation into the determinants influencing carbon emission intensity becomes imperative. This paper comprehensively analyzes carbon emission intensity data and its influencing factors from 1997 to 2019 across 30 provinces in China. By constructing a panel dataset and employing the panel threshold model as a methodological tool, our study explores the nonlinear relationship between industrial upgrading and carbon emission intensity within the regional scope of Chinese provinces. Furthermore, in this specific context, our study examines various economic development determinants' impact on carbon emission intensity. Empirical research results indicate that the relationship between China's industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission intensity is rather complex. As the industrial structure continuously upgrades, a U-shaped curve relationship is observed between the two variables. Energy intensity and technological progress exhibit positive impacts of 0.56% and 0.04%, respectively, on carbon emission intensity. In contrast, the inhibitory effect of per capita GDP on carbon emission intensity is 0.17%. Therefore, to achieve low-carbon and sustainable development, the Chinese government must strategically prioritize cultivating high-value-added service sectors in the tertiary industry. Simultaneously, while promoting and developing low-carbon technologies, coordination is necessary to enhance energy-intensive sectors' synchronous enhancement. Additionally, the scope of efforts must also include the systematic decarbonization of the second industry by enhancing energy efficiency and increasing the proportion of clean energy utilization.

참고문헌 (31)

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