혼돈(渾沌)시대 대한민국의 대전략
The Grand Strategy of the Republic of Korea in the Chaotic Age
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지금 세계는 국제정치적 치세와 난세가 공존하는 혼돈시대를 맞고 있다. 대한민국은 과거 국제정치적 난세 속에서 국권을 잃고 식민주의적 침탈에 시달리고 민족의 분단과 상잔을 겪었다. 반면 2차대전, 특히 냉전 이후 등장한 국제정치적 치세 속에서 경제적 선진국, 외교적 중견국으로 발돋움했다. 그런데 미국과 중국 사이의 패권적 경쟁, 러시아, 중국, 나아가 미국과 일본 등의 권력정치적 행태, 각국에서 등장하는 민족주의적 포퓰리즘 등으로 난세의 재현이 우려되고 있다. 그러나 치세와 난세 어느 것도 결정적인 흐름이라고 보기는 어려우므로 혼돈시대다. 이런 시대에 대한민국은 치세를 지향하고 난세에 대비함으로써 지금의 성세를 후세에 물려줘야 한다. 그것을 위해 필요한 것이 대전략적 사고와 행동이다. 혼돈시대에 방향을 잃고 대증(對症)적 행보로 일관하다가는 자칫 치명적인 결과를 가져올 수 있기 때문이다. 따라서 대한민국의 정부와 국민은 (1) 생존의 확보, (2) 자주성의 제고, (3) 국력의 증진으로 대표되는 대전략적 목표를 염두에 두고 (1) 북핵문제를 포함한 대북 및 통일, (2) 국방, (3) 외교 등 분야에서 장기적 전략을 수립하고 그에 따라 국제정치의 일상을 관리함으로써 치세 속의 중견국의 입지를 견고하게 구축해야 한다.
Abstract
The world today can better be called in the state of chaos, where elements of the state of war and those of the state of peace coexist. Despite the old maxim that the state of nature among states is the state of war, the world has long enjoyed a state of peace in the form of liberal world order. Then the old specter of the state of war has been resurgent. The U.S. and China are involved in a trade war, potentially a form of the Thucydides trap; the revisionist powers are increasing in numbers, and even presumably status quo powers such as the U.S., Japan, and the United Kingdom are behaving in revisionist fashions. Given that South Korea’s phenomenal rise to a global status has benefited from the liberal world order, it is a high time for ROK to reevaluate the current situation and come up with a grand strategy so as to sustain the liberal order on the one hand, and prepare for the worst on the other. Managing and resolving North Korea’s nuclear challenge takes the highest priority, but its process and end results should be forged so as to pave a way to a unified, if de facto, Korean nation with (1) a military strategy and capability of non-offensive defense, (2) a foreign policy strategy toward a complex balance among states and regions, and (3) respectable diplomatic posture as a global middle power.
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