한국의 반도체 수출입과 경제성장의 인과성 분석
An Analysis on Causality between Import and Export of Semiconductor and Economic Growth in Korea
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Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between trade and economic growth in korea using quarterly data over the period from 1998 to 2008. This paper employs the Johansen's multivariate cointegration procedure and Granger causal test. The multivariate cointegration technique is superior to the simpler regression-based technique because it fully captures the underlying time series properties of the data, provides estimates of all of the cointegrating vectors that may exist among a vector of variables, and offers a test statistic for the number of cointegrating vectors which has an exact limiting distribution. This test may therefore be viewed as more discerning in its ability to reject a false null hypothesis. The findings of cointegration facilitates an examination of the short-run model using a error correction model. The findings of the Granger test suggest that economic growth Granger-causes export and import. This paper also applies impulse-response functions to the model. The empirical results show that the export and import respond positively to the shocks in economic growth and then decay quickly.
참고문헌 (22)
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